Organizational Pressures on Forecast Evaluation: Managerial, Political, and Procedural Influences

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory to explain why some forecasting organizations institutionalize forecast accuracy evaluation while others do not. The theory considers internal and external aspects of managerial, political, and procedural factors as they aect forecasting organizations. The theory is then tested using data from a survey of the US Federal Forecasters Group. Though some support for the theory is developed, multiple alternative explanations for results and the`public' nature of the sample organizations prevent wide-scale generalization. The results suggest that larger organizations are more likely to have some form of forecast evaluation than smaller units. The institutionalization of forecast accuracy evaluation is closely linked to internal managerial and procedural factors, while external political pressure tends to reduce the likelihood of institutionalization of evaluation of forecast accuracy. #

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