On the Internet, No One Knows You’re an Activist: Patterns of Participation and Response in an Online, Opt-in Survey Panel

Hopkins, Daniel J.; Gorton, Tori

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4441016

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 52 publications

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“…where Ω 12 is the sub-matrix consisting of the rows corresponding to z 1 and columns corresponding to z 2 . politically interested than the public writ large, meaning their attitudes may be more correlated across issues than those of the general public (Marble and Tyler, 2022;Freeder, Lenz and Turney, 2018;Hopkins and Gorton, 2023).…”

Section: Assumptions and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities

Marble,

Clinton

2024

Preprint

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Multilevel regression and poststratification is widely used to estimate opinion in small geographies and to adjust unrepresentative surveys — and has become a mainstay in the study of dyadic representation. Yet, errors generated by nonignorable non-response and modeling uncertainty make discrepancies between public opinion and policy outcomes difficult to interpret. We propose a principled, data-driven method to leverage auxiliary quantities with known marginal distributions — e.g., election outcomes — to improve estimates of policy attitudes. Our method estimates the geographic correlation between the auxiliary variables and the outcomes of interest, then adjusts the estimates using observed errors in the auxiliary variable estimate. We illustrate our approach using a pre-election poll measuring support for an abortion referendum, finding that the method reduces county-level error by two-thirds. We find similarly dramatic improvements estimating precinct-level opinion. Our method generates new possibilities for accurately estimating policy attitudes at previously unattainable levels of geographic resolution.

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Section: Assumptions and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities

Marble,

Clinton

2024

Preprint

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Getting the Race Wrong: A Case Study of Sampling Bias and Black Voters in Online, Opt-In Polls

Hopkins,

Halm,

Huerta

et al. 2024

J. Race Ethnicity Politics

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Researchers are increasingly reliant on online, opt-in surveys. But prior benchmarking exercises employ national samples, making it unclear whether such surveys can effectively represent Black respondents and other minorities nationwide. This paper presents the results of uncompensated online and in-person surveys administered chiefly in one racially diverse American city—Philadelphia—during its 2023 mayoral primary. The participation rate for online surveys promoted via Facebook and Instagram was .4%, with White residents and those with college degrees more likely to respond. Such biases help explain why neither our surveys nor public polls correctly identified the Democratic primary’s winner, an establishment-backed Black Democrat. Even weighted, geographically stratified online surveys typically underestimate the winner’s support, although an in-person exit poll does not. We identify some similar patterns in Chicago. These results indicate important gaps in the populations represented in contemporary opt-in surveys and suggest that alternative survey modes help reduce them.

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Mobilizing middlemen: the Conservative Political Action Conference and the creation of party activists

Cole

2024

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

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On the Internet, No One Knows You’re an Activist: Patterns of Participation and Response in an Online, Opt-in Survey Panel

Cited by 3 publications

References 52 publications

Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities

Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities

Getting the Race Wrong: A Case Study of Sampling Bias and Black Voters in Online, Opt-In Polls

Mobilizing middlemen: the Conservative Political Action Conference and the creation of party activists

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