volume 13, issue S335, P294-297 2017
DOI: 10.1017/s1743921317010432
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M. B. Korsós, S. Poedts, N. Gyenge, M. K. Georgoulis, S. Yu, S. K. Bisoi, Y. Yan, M. S. Ruderman, R. Erdélyi

Abstract: We apply a novel pre-flare tracking of sunspot groups towards improving the estimation of flare onset time by focusing on the evolution of the 3D magnetic field construction of AR 11429. The 3D magnetic structure is based on potential field extrapolation encompassing a vertical range from the photosphere through the chromosphere and transition region into the low corona. The basis of our proxy measure of activity prediction is the so-called weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (W G M ) defined betwe…

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