On the age validation of supercentenarians

Poulain, Michel

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-11520-2_1

Cited by 36 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…These methods of age validation were based on the approaches proposed by the experts in this area (Jeune and Vaupel 1999; Poulain 2010) and our own research experience. All records (for centenarians and controls) were subjected to verification and quality control using several independent data sources.…”

Section: The Between-family Approach: Sampling Centenarians and Gementioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life and Midlife Conditions, and Familial Longevity

Gavrilov¹,

Gavrilova²

2015

North American Actuarial Journal

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Knowledge of strong predictors of mortality and longevity is very important for actuarial science and practice. Earlier studies found that parental characteristics as well as early-life conditions and midlife environment play a significant role in survival to advanced ages. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects of these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study attempts to fill this gap by comparing centenarians born in the United States in 1890–1891 with peers born in the same years who died at age 65. The records for centenarians and controls were taken from computerized family histories, which were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. As a result of this linkage procedure, 765 records of confirmed centenarians and 783 records of controls were obtained. Analysis with multivariate logistic regression found the existence of both general and gender-specific predictors of human longevity. General predictors common for men and women are paternal and maternal longevity. Gender-specific predictors of male longevity are occupation as a farmer at age 40, Northeastern region of birth in the United States, and birth in the second half of year. A gender-specific predictor of female longevity is the availability of radio in the household according to the 1930 U.S. census. Given the importance of familial longevity as an independent predictor of survival to advanced ages, we conducted a comparative study of biological and nonbiological relatives of centenarians using a larger sample of 1,945 validated U.S. centenarians born in 1880–1895. We found that male gender of centenarian has a significant positive effect on survival of adult male relatives (brothers and fathers) but not female blood relatives. Life span of centenarian siblings-in-law is lower compared to life span of centenarian siblings and does not depend on centenarian gender. Wives of male centenarians (who share lifestyle and living conditions) have a significantly better survival compared to wives of centenarians’ brothers. This finding demonstrates an important role of shared familial environment and lifestyle in human longevity. The results of this study suggest that familial background, some early-life conditions and midlife characteristics play an important role in longevity.

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Section: The Between-family Approach: Sampling Centenarians and Gementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies of centenarians require serious work on age validation (Jeune and Vaupel 1999; Poulain 2010, 2011) and careful design including the choice of an appropriate control group. Taking general population as a control group is one of the most popular approaches in centenarian studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life and Midlife Conditions, and Familial Longevity

Gavrilov¹,

Gavrilova²

2015

North American Actuarial Journal

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“…However, they require serious work on age validation (Jeune and Vaupel 1999; Poulain 2010; Poulain 2011) and careful design including the choice of an appropriate control group. Living to age 100 is a rare event, and it is very difficult to obtain a representative population sample of centenarians for a large country as the United States.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of exceptional human longevity: new ideas and findings

Gavrilov

Gavrilova

2014

Populationyearbook

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Studies of centenarians are useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. In this article we consider several approaches to study effects of early-life and midlife conditions on survival to advanced ages: use of non-biological relatives as controls, the within-family analysis, as well as a sampling of controls from the same population universe as centenarians. These approaches are illustrated using data on American centenarians, their relatives and unrelated shorterlived controls obtained from the online genealogies. The within-family analysis revealed that young maternal age at person's birth is associated with higher chances of exceptional longevity. Comparison of centenarians and their shorter-lived peers (died at age 65 and sampled from the same pool of online genealogies) confirmed that birth timing in the second half of the calendar year predicts survival to age 100. Parental longevity as well as some childhood and midlife characteristics also proved to be significant predictors of exceptional longevity.

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“…In addition, any future attempts at individual age validation would have to include a larger representative sample of centenarians in order to reach significant conclusions. As explained elsewhere (Poulain 2010), checking birth records or linking death and birth records cannot be sufficient to ensure individual age validation beyond doubt. The family history should also be verified.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is definitely easier to prove that a person is not a centenarian than the opposite. In fact, a well-founded argument is sufficient to invalidate with high probability the age of an alleged centenarian, whereas an imposing set of consistent documents are required to establish a high probability of age validation (Poulain 2010).…”

Section: Validation Of Individual and Population Longevitymentioning

confidence: 99%