On Confinement and Quarantine Concerns on an SEIAR Epidemic Model with Simulated Parameterizations for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This paper firstly studies an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic model without demography and with no disease mortality under both total and under partial quarantine of the susceptible subpopulation or of both the susceptible and the infectious ones in order to satisfy the hospital availability requirements on bed disposal and other necessary treatment means for the seriously infectious subpopulations. The seriously infectious individuals are assumed to be a part of the total infectious being described by a time-varying proportional function. A time-varying upper-bound of those seriously infected individuals has to be satisfied as objective by either a total confinement or partial quarantine intervention of the susceptible subpopulation. Afterwards, a new extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model, which is referred to as an SEIAR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic infectious-asymptomatic infectious-recovered) epidemic model with demography and disease mortality is given and focused on so as to extend the above developed ideas on the SIR model. A proportionally gain in the model parameterization is assumed to distribute the transition from the exposed to the infectious into the two infectious individuals (namely, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals). Such a model is evaluated under total or partial quarantines of all or of some of the subpopulations which have the effect of decreasing the number of contagions. Simulated numerical examples are also discussed related to model parameterizations of usefulness related to the current COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks.

On an SE(Is)(Ih)AR epidemic model with combined vaccination and antiviral controls for COVID-19 pandemic

“…Note the following facts: Fact 1: S * end is positive by (44) and is unique. end , E * end , I * send , I * hend , A * end , R * end ) T is unique with all positive components (so that it is attainable) for a sufficiently large transmission rate.…”

“…Some new recent work [ 44 ] is devoted to discussion of the relevance of lockdowns and quarantines to fight against the spread of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Further work in the fractional framework for a SIRV model under combined vaccination and treatment controls is reported in [ 45 ] and also in [ 49 ] concerning rubella propagation.…”

“…The proposed epidemic model is also subject, in the most general framework, to feedback vaccination and treatment controls. It is tested through numerical worked and tested examples under parameterizations related to the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which is exhaustively studied in the medical and computational background literature; see, for instance, [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48] and references therein. Therefore the current study is of important potential interest, although nowadays there is no yet an approved vaccine for COVID-19 to be applied on the population.…”

A Modified SIRD Model to Study the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain

“…In addition to the works already considered about SIRD models, interested readers can find a wide variety of models for the study of the COVID-19 pandemic in the scientific literature published in the last months: using Bayesian and stochastic techniques [20][21][22], including mobility [23], confinement and quarantine [15,24], fractional models [25], and logistic models [26], among others.…”

On a Discrete SEIR Epidemic Model with Two-Doses Delayed Feedback Vaccination Control on the Susceptible

“…Therefore, discrete epidemic models have been found appropriate for processing such data. See, for instance, [ 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 ] and some related references therein. Studies on particular data for different countries or regions can be found in the literature related to COVID-19, sometimes related to public interventions, such as quarantines, isolation measures, lockdowns, use of masks, social distance rules, etc.…”