Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries

Katırcıoğlu, Salih; Sertoğlu, Kamil; Candemir, Mehmet; Mercan, Mehmet

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.016

Cited by 97 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…This expectation might be reduced if the government is unstable. Because the banking system is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and regulatory restrictions, the banking risk will also be (Buyuksalvarci & Abdioglu, 2010;Karacaer & Kapusuzoglu, 2010;Katircioglu, 2012;Katircioglu, 2017;Katircioglu, Sertoglu, Candemir, & Mercan, 2015;Rjoub, 2011;Sodeyfi, 2016;Sodeyfi & Katircioglu, 2016). González (2005) found that regulatory constraints increase risk-taking because banks in countries with stricter regulations have a lower charter value, which increases their incentives to follow risky policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of political instability on risk‐taking in the banking sector: International evidence using a dynamic panel data model (System‐GMM)

2019

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This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of political instability risk on risk‐taking in the banking sector of 75 countries, which is the first attempt for this nexus to the best of our knowledge. The dynamic panel data model (System‐GMM) showed that political instability risk significantly increases risk‐taking in the banking sector. Besides, corruption levels and government ineffectiveness are the most important channels of political instability that affect the banking sector risk. The results also actively support the “too big to fail” hypothesis. Finally, the robustness results confirm the conclusions derived from the baseline System‐GMM model.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of political instability on risk‐taking in the banking sector: International evidence using a dynamic panel data model (System‐GMM)

2019

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“…Although a handful of studies investigated the relationship between the oil shock and the unemployment rate together with other macroeconomic variables (Hamilton, ; Gisser and Goodwin, ; Mork, ; Lee et al ., ; Hooker, ; Lescaroux and Mignon, ; Blanchard and Gali, ; Kilian and Vigfusson, ; Katircioglu et al ., ), studies on the relationship between oil price and unemployment rate are rare. For example, Brown and Yucel () find that a falling trend across the US states in terms of the effect of oil price fluctuations on state‐level employment.…”

Section: Review Of the Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…See also Lescaroux and Mignon () and Katircioglu et al . () for the international comparison of the relationship.…”

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confidence: 99%

Asymmetric effects of theWTIcrude oil price on unemployment rates: a comparative study of Canadian provinces and the United States

Jung

Das

2018

OPEC Energy Review

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Since 2014, Canada has been experiencing a higher unemployment rate due to a slump of the crude oil price. Using a monthly data set of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price and unemployment rates of Canadian provinces and the United States from January 1976 to October 2016, we examine the asymmetric effects of oil price on unemployment rates. Specifically, we split the sample into the pre‐technological boom (January 1976 to March 1995) and post‐technological boom periods (April 1995 to October 2016) and analyse whether the asymmetric effects are discernible in these two periods. This is done by applying the ordinary least squares regressions and Granger causality tests. Our findings confirm the asymmetric effects for the full sample in the United States. In Canada, the negative and asymmetric relationship is conspicuous particularly in the post‐tech period, and this relationship is more prominent in three oil‐producing Canadian provinces namely Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador. It is noticeable that both in Canada and in the three provinces, the falling oil price affects unemployment adversely only in the post‐tech period. Granger causality tests support the short‐run causal relationships between changes in oil price and unemployment rate in the post‐tech period.

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“…The oil price is inherently uncertain [42,43]. This paper adopts the average Brent oil price in 2014 to assess the projects.…”

Section: Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Evaluation Method-Based Technical and Economic Factors for International Oil Exploration Projects

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Optimizing international oil exploration projects is one of the main challenges for oil companies in obtaining investment benefits. This paper establishes an integrated evaluation model to maximize investment benefits within the constraints of technical and economic factors, including geological factors, resource quality, geographic conditions, the investment environment, and oil contracts. The paper also proposes a dynamic calculation method of indicators' weight associated with oil prices. The analysis describes the effects of contract terms and the investment environment on project value and quantifies the contractor income ratio for different types of contracts and the investment environment of the host country. Oil exploration projects in Africa are illustrated as examples in which the evaluation indicator Adjusted Concept Reserves (ACR) is calculated for each project. The results show that remaining recoverable reserves and contract terms exert tremendous influences on ACR, and remaining recoverable reserves is the essential factor. Simultaneously, changes in oil prices lead to various rates of change in the contractor income ratio, which is determined by different fiscal terms. This study is important in helping oil companies optimize international oil projects and design reasonable investment strategies.

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Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries

Cited by 97 publications

References 40 publications

The impact of political instability on risk‐taking in the banking sector: International evidence using a dynamic panel data model (System‐GMM)

The impact of political instability on risk‐taking in the banking sector: International evidence using a dynamic panel data model (System‐GMM)

Asymmetric effects of theWTIcrude oil price on unemployment rates: a comparative study of Canadian provinces and the United States

Integrated Evaluation Method-Based Technical and Economic Factors for International Oil Exploration Projects

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