Observed and predicted effects of climate on Australian seabirds

Abstract

Although there is growing evidence of climate warming, for many regions the broader effects of climate variation on marine top predators remains unknown owing to the difficulty in obtaining, for synthesis, long-term and shortterm datasets on multiple species. In the Australian region, climatic and oceanographic variability and change have been shown to affect marine species, often with profound consequences. Many seabirds are apex predators for which changes in climatic and oceanic dynamics have driven range movements poleward, reduced breeding success and altered breeding timing for some species. Here we review the literature to assess and determine the vulnerability of Australian seabirds to variation and change in climate and identify which species and ecosystems may be more resilient to future climate warming. It is clear from this synthesis that not all Australian seabirds are affected similarly, with responses varying by species and location. In addition, the paucity of information on the distribution and biology of seabird prey, foraging patterns and movements of seabirds, and the ability of seabirds to switch between prey species or adjust timing of life-cycles make generalisations about potential effects of future climate change and adaptive capacity in seabirds difficult. This applies both within Australia and elsewhere, where data are similarly sparse.

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds

“…Over the last two decades, breeding participation in three species, Lesser Noddy Anous tenuirostris, Brown Noddy A. stolidus and Sooty Tern Onychoprion fuscata, was lower in years of later breeding, though the resident Lesser Noddies appeared to be more resilient than the two migratory species . There is some evidence that ENSO influences the timing of breeding in Western Australian Laridae, with potentially new (but as yet unknown) complicating factors appearing in more recent years, resulting in reduced reproductive performance in both ENSO and non-ENSO years (Surman and Nicholson 2009b;Chambers et al 2011).…”

“…In light of the conservation status of many of the world's seabirds, that a high proportion of the most threatened species are in the southern hemisphere, and that many seabirds are influenced by climatic changes in their marine and terrestrial environments (reviewed by Chambers et al 2011Chambers et al , 2013a, this paper aims to:…”

Impacts of climate variation and potential effects of climate change on South American seabirds – a review

“…Nevoux et al 2007;Rolland et al 2010). Chambers et al (2011) pointed out further potential impacts of climate change, including effects of rises in sea level and storms, ocean acidification, changing wind patterns, increased land temperature and extreme precipitation events.…”

“…Several recent reviews suggested that global warming has a profound bottom-up impact upon marine top-predators (e.g. Grémillet & Boulinier 2009;Chambers et al 2011). Climate change also increasingly affects seabirds.…”

Hybridisation and the future of austral ornithology

“…But for some scientific issues, such as the study of trans-hemisphere migration, for example, events in one hemisphere affect life-history stages in the other hemisphere. This means that when considering the potential effects of climate change (Chambers et al 2011) or disease ecology (Klaassen et al 2011), the two hemispheres cannot be considered separately.…”