Observational evidence of solar dimming: Offsetting surface warming over India

Kumari, B. Padma; Londhe, A. L.; Daniel, S.; Jadhav, D. B.

doi:10.1029/2007gl031133

Cited by 136 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Similarly to the region in Northwest China, the observed radiation records in India show a continuous decrease in SSR from 1964 to 2000 with no substantial recovery in the more recent period Ramanathan et al 2005;Kumari et al 2007;Ohmura 2009). This is illustrated in Fig.…”

Section: Indiamentioning

confidence: 97%

Assessment of global dimming and brightening in IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 models and ERA40

Wild

Schmucki

2010

Clim Dyn

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Observations indicate that solar radiation incident at the Earth surface underwent substantial decadal variations in the second half of the twentieth century, with a tendency towards reduction from the 1950s to the 1980s (''global dimming'') and a partial recovery thereafter (''brightening'') at widespread locations. The most reliable observational records from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) are used to evaluate the ability of the climate models participating in CMIP3/IPCC-AR4 as well as the ERA40 reanalysis to reproduce these decadal variations. The results from 23 models and reanalysis are analyzed in five different climatic regions where strong decadal variations in surface solar radiation (SSR) have been observed. Only about half of the models are capable of reproducing the observed decadal variations in a qualitative way, and all models show much smaller amplitudes in these variations than seen in the observations. Largely differing tendencies between the models are not only found under all-sky conditions, but also in cloud-free conditions and in the representation of cloud effects. The ERA40 reanalysis neither reproduces the major decadal variations in SSR, despite strong observational constraints on the temporal evolution of the state of the atmosphere, since time varying aerosol loadings are missing. Climate models and reanalyses are therefore not yet at a stage to provide regionally consistent estimates of decadal changes in SSR. Reproduction of these changes would be essential for an adequate representation of regional scale climate variations and impacts, and short-term (decadal) climate projections.

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Section: Indiamentioning

confidence: 97%

Assessment of global dimming and brightening in IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 models and ERA40

Wild

Schmucki

2010

Clim Dyn

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“…4 it can be seen that cooling seen in a major part of the Indo-Gangetic plain areas in northern India has been replaced by warming, although a few small pockets of cooling remain in the eastern parts of northern India. The cooling observed over the IndoGangetic region could be due to the presence of aerosols and related solar dimming (Sarkar et al 2006, Padma Kumari et al 2007). The significant warming observed in the recent decades is in line with some of the model-projected temperature changes over India (Krishna Kumar et al 2005, Turner et al 2007).…”

Section: Spatial Patterns Of Temperature Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901–2007, and its association with ENSO

Kothawale¹,

Munot²,

Kumar³

2010

Clim. Res.

168

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Seasonal and annual trends in surface air temperature over India and 7 homogeneous regions (western Himalaya, northwest, north-central, northeast, east coast, west coast and interior peninsula) were assessed during 3 periods: 1901-2007, 1971-2007 and 1998-2007. Indian annual mean (average of maximum and minimum), maximum and minimum temperatures showed significant warming trends of 0.51, 0.72 and 0.27°C 100 yr , with a much steeper increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature. In the most recent decade, maximum temperature was significantly higher compared to the long-term (1901-2007) mean, with a stagnated trend during this period, whereas minimum temperature showed an increasing trend, almost equal to that observed during 1971-2007. On a seasonal scale, pronounced warming trends in mean temperature were observed in winter and monsoon seasons, and a significant influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation events on temperature anomalies during certain seasons across India was observed. The composites of maximum and minimum temperatures of El Niño years showed positive anomalies during monsoon, post-monsoon and subsequent year winter and pre-monsoon seasons. However, statistically significant positive anomalies were observed only during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons over large areas of the country. The composite temperature anomalies of La Niña years were almost opposite to El Niño composites: the negative temperature anomalies associated with La Niña events persisted from the current monsoon season to the subsequent year pre-monsoon season.KEY WORDS: India · Temperature trend · Decadal average temperature · Global warming · ENSO Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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“…17.1c). This is likely because of increased air pollution in the region, the "brown cloud," that blocks more sunlight counteracting the warming due to greenhouse gases, especially in premonsoon maximum temperatures (Padma Kumari et al 2007;Wild 2012). The CMIP5 historical greenhouse gas (GHG) experiments without aerosols indeed indicate a larger trend in the Bay of Bengal (sea points in 10°-25°N, 80°-90°E), 1.6°C (100 yr) −1 over October-December from 1970 to 2005, than the historical experiments, 1.3°C (100 yr) −1 .…”

Section: The Heavy Precipitation Event Of December 2015 In Chennai Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This precludes an attribution of the floods to anthropogenic factors, probably to a large extent due to the two main pollutants, greenhouse gases and aerosols, having opposing effects. Over land this opposition is discussed by Padma Kumari et al (2007) and Wild (2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%