2009
DOI: 10.1175/2008waf2007076.1
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Abstract: During a 5-yr period of study from 2000 to 2004, slightly more than 10% of all National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings were issued either simultaneously as the tornado formed (i.e., with zero lead time) or minutes after initial tornado formation but prior to tornado dissipation (i.e., with ''negative'' lead time). This study examines why these tornadoes were not warned in advance, and what climate, storm morphology, and sociological factors may have played a role in delaying the issuance of the warning… Show more

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Cited by 34 publications
(14 citation statements)
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References 12 publications
(12 reference statements)
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“…Over an average year in the United States, there are ~1253 tornadoes (NCEI 2016), of which ~16% can be expected to produce a TDS (Van Den Broeke and Jauernic 2014). An average of 10% of tornadoes have negative or zero lead time (Brotzge and Erickson 2009), and ~25.5% of tornadoes were unwarned before the polarimetric upgrade (Brotzge and Erickson 2010). For simplicity, it could be assumed that these rates are the same for tornadoes that produce TDSs as for those that do not.…”
Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Over an average year in the United States, there are ~1253 tornadoes (NCEI 2016), of which ~16% can be expected to produce a TDS (Van Den Broeke and Jauernic 2014). An average of 10% of tornadoes have negative or zero lead time (Brotzge and Erickson 2009), and ~25.5% of tornadoes were unwarned before the polarimetric upgrade (Brotzge and Erickson 2010). For simplicity, it could be assumed that these rates are the same for tornadoes that produce TDSs as for those that do not.…”
Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In a large sample of events, it was found that tornado warnings are issued on average 13 min prior to tornadogenesis, though the public would like a longer average lead time (Hoekstra et al 2011). Warnings were issued with negative or zero lead time in ~10% of events in another study, with negative lead time most common for the first tornado of the day and on days with few tornadoes (Brotzge and Erickson 2009). Storm mode has also been shown to influence tornado warning lead time.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…The warning lead time of a tornado is very small compared to other disaster warnings: sometimes, it is even zero or negative (Brotzge & Erickson, 2009). In Canada, a warning can be issued with a lead time of around ten minutes if the tornado is within the coverage of a Doppler radar installation (Meteorological Service of Canada, 2003).…”
Section: Tornado Propertiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While tornado fatalities occurred in North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Maryland, and New Jersey, none of these was unwarned. Brotzge andErickson (2009, 2010) suggest that the first tornado of the day and tornadoes as part of an …”
Section: Spatial Distribution Of Warnings and Fatalitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Of the unwarned fatalities that were not isolated and/or the first tornado of the day, 71.8% occurred in the 1985-95 period prior to NWS modernization in the mid-1990s. While isolated tornadoes and the first tornado of the day may have a greater likelihood of having zero or negative lead time or no warning (Brotzge andErickson 2009, 2010), they only account for about half of unwarned tornado fatalities. The remaining unwarned tornado fatalities are due to tornadoes beyond the first of the day and/or on days with seven or more tornadoes.…”
Section: Spatial Distribution Of Warnings and Fatalitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%