Numerical simulation of urban impact on precipitation in Tokyo: How does urban temperature rise affect precipitation?

Seino, Naoko; Aoyagi, Toshio; Tsuguti, Hiroshige

doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2016.11.007

Cited by 41 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…S4). Possible impacts of urbanization on local rainfall generation mechanisms 42,68 are also neglected. Despite these limitations, when the model assumptions are satisfied (i.e., no local specific conditions) and accurate urban/climate characteristics are available, the model can produce reasonable estimates of city-specific UHI intensities (G.M.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, the coarse-grained approach here can provide a first order guideline on expected cooling effects valid across different regions, future climate, and population scenarios to complement micro-scale monitoring and modeling studies. Similarly, the parallel research track of detailed urban energy balance studies24,41,42 can improve the presented coarse-grained representation of urban-biosphere interactions by providing refined urban and climate relations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population

Manoli

Fatichi

Schläpfer

et al. 2019

Nature

682

352

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Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs is known to vary with population size and mean annual precipitation but a unifying argument is missing, and geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation remain elusive. Here we analyze urban-rural surface temperature differences (∆T s) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase of ∆T s with precipitation that is controlled by water/energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ∆T s with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model linking population, background climate, and UHI intensity and we show that urban-rural changes in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants for warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, while cooling tropical cities is a challenge that will require innovative solutions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population

Manoli

Fatichi

Schläpfer

et al. 2019

Nature

682

352

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show abstract

“…These complex underlying surfaces can significantly influence local wind circulations and convection and make weather forecasting, especially of local severe convective storms, very challenging. Many observational and modeling studies have shown the impacts of urban land cover on temperature, moisture, air flows, and on the location, distribution, and intensity of convective precipitation in urban and surrounding areas (Dou et al, ; Han & Baik, ; Miao et al, ; Niyogi et al, ; Shepherd, ; Seino et al, ). Bornstein and Lin () conducted an observational analysis to show that the urban heat island (UHI) induced a convergence zone that initiated storms in Atlanta in the period from 26 July to 3 August 1996.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms for a Record‐Breaking Rainfall in the Coastal Metropolitan City of Guangzhou, China: Observation Analysis and Nested Very Large Eddy Simulation With the WRF Model

Huang

Liu

Huai-yu³

et al. 2019

JGR Atmospheres

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Record‐breaking rainfall of 524.1 mm in 24 hr occurred in the coastal metropolitan city of Guangzhou, China, during 6–7 May 2017 and caused devastating flooding. Observation analysis and a nested very large eddy simulation (VLES) with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were conducted to investigate various factors that contributed to the heavy rainfall, including synoptic weather pattern, topographic effects, cold pool, and urban effects. First, the warm and moist southerly flow in the lower troposphere over the trumpet‐shaped topography of the Pearl River Delta continuously provided fuel for the development of the severe rainfall. Consequently, the southerly flow from the sea in the south strengthened with the development of the convection. Meanwhile, the precipitation‐produced weak cold pool supported a stationary outflow boundary, where new convective cells were continuously initiated and drifted downstream. The interaction between the cold outflows and the warm moist southerly flows in the lower troposphere formed a back‐building convective system, which produced local persistent heavy rainfall that lasted for more than 5 hr and reached record levels. Sensitivity experiments in which the urban area was removed from the model indicate that the urban forcing affected the timing and location of convective initiation and helped concentrate the maximum rain core. The nested WRF‐LES successfully simulated this heavy rainfall, and the model's advantages are noted for forecasting such local severe weather.

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“…The above studies show that the two high satellite-based products are widely used for precipitation studies in megacities or cluster cities, but almost no careful validations have been conducted for these two rainfall products in urban areas. In addition, complicated urban environments and underlying surfaces affect rainfall processes [28]. Some studies have proved that the underlying surface greatly affects urban atmospheric boundary layers and the local climatic environments, resulting in some rainfall occurrences or rainfall extremes [29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accuracy Evaluation of Two High-Resolution Satellite-Based Rainfall Products: TRMM 3B42V7 and CMORPH in Shanghai

Jiang

Wen

et al. 2018

Water

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Satellite-based rainfall products have extensive applications in global change studies, but they are known to contain deviations that require comprehensive verification at different scales. In this paper, we evaluated the accuracies of two high-resolution satellite-based rainfall products: the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) rainfall product 3B42V7 and the Climate Prediction Center morphing (CMORPH) technique from January 2010 to December 2011 in Shanghai, by using categorical metrics (Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, and Critical Success Index) and statistical indicators (Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Bias, and Correlation Coefficient). Our findings show that, firstly, CMORPH data has a higher accuracy than 3B42V7 at the daily scale, but it underestimates the occurrence frequency of daily rainfall for some intensity ranges. Most errors of the two products are distributed between −10 and 10 mm/day. Second, at the monthly scale, the total accuracy of 3B42V7 is higher than CMORPH in terms of the value of the Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Relative Bias (RB). Finally, CMORPH brings about daily rainfall detection results from categorical metrics computation better than 3B42V7. Generally, the two satellite-based rainfall products show a high correlation with rain gauge data in Shanghai, particularly in spring and winter. Unfortunately, in summer, both of them do not perform well in detecting the short-duration heavy rainfall events. Overall, the relatively poor data accuracy has limited their further applications in Shanghai and similar urban areas.

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Numerical simulation of urban impact on precipitation in Tokyo: How does urban temperature rise affect precipitation?

Cited by 41 publications

References 56 publications

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population

Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population

Mechanisms for a Record‐Breaking Rainfall in the Coastal Metropolitan City of Guangzhou, China: Observation Analysis and Nested Very Large Eddy Simulation With the WRF Model

Accuracy Evaluation of Two High-Resolution Satellite-Based Rainfall Products: TRMM 3B42V7 and CMORPH in Shanghai

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