Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change

Abstract

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21st-century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Forage Yield and Quality Indices of Silage-Corn Following Organic and Inorganic Phosphorus Amendments in Podzol Soil under Boreal Climate

“…The pooled weather data over the three growing seasons showed slightly higher (6%) rainfall compared to the last thirty years depicting the changing climatic pattern ( Table 2). Increased rainfall during crop growth season in the rainfed areas is predicted to enhance the agricultural production [49]. Results of the present study demonstrated higher forage yield in DMP1 (Figure 1a), probably due to higher N, P, K and micronutrients and organic matter, that improved aggregation and soil structure for better aeration, soil quality and maintained or increased soil pH in acidic soils [50].…”

“…The pooled weather data over the three growing seasons showed slightly higher (6%) rainfall compared to the last thirty years depicting the changing climatic pattern ( Table 2). Increased rainfall during crop growth season in the rainfed areas is predicted to enhance the agricultural production [49].…”

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

“…Expected climate change will likely promote further northward expansion of crops adapted to warmer climates but also decrease suitability in the areas affected by increasingly higher temperatures and more frequent droughts (Hannah et al, 2013;Iglesias et al, 2011;King et al, 2018;Marx et al, 2017; 10.1029/2019EF001178 Peltonen-Saino, 2009). King et al (2018) suggested that crop suitable growing-degree-days conditions will experience a northward expansion of up to 1,200 km in the boreal regions by the end of the 21st century. However, northward expansion of conditions conducive to agricultural crop production in the boreal regions will be accompanied by the migration of agro-climate zones and crop growing conditions also elsewhere in Europe.…”

Effect of Biochar Application Rates on the Hydraulic Properties of an Agricultural-Use Boreal Podzol

“…Ongoing and future climate changes are expected to affect agricultural productivity in large parts of the current farming regions [1,2]. On the other hand, global warming and corresponding northward shifts in growing degree-days might favor the expansion of agriculture into boreal areas [3]. However, the primary soil type in the boreal regions is Podzol, a soil type considered as unattractive for agronomic use [4].…”