Northward shift of historical methane emission hotspots from the livestock sector in China and assessment of potential mitigation options

Xu, Ping; Liao, Yumei; Zheng, Yi; Zhao, Changqi; Zhang, Xiangfei; Zhao, Zheng; Luan, Sheng

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.022

Cited by 30 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The gridded maps can reveal to a certain extent the spatial shifts in CH 4 emissions within countries, and thus help to formulate future mitigation strategies on a sub‐national scale. For example, in China, although the total emissions have fallen since the late 1990s (Figure 5), emissions in the north have increased in the last three decades (Figure 7d), indicating that future mitigation efforts could pay more attention to the north (Xu et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reasonable manure management can also promote emission reduction. A study showed that combination of anaerobic digestion and composting can reduce total CH 4 emissions from livestock by up to 15% in China (Xu et al, 2019). Based on data from four European countries (i.e., Sweden, Denmark, France, and Italy), Sommer et al (2009) found that CH 4 emissions from pig and cattle slurry can be reduced by over ~50% via solids and liquid separation and incineration of the solids.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Zhang

Tian

Shi

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Livestock contributes approximately one-third of global anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variations of these emissions is crucial for climate change mitigation. Although country-level information is reported regularly through national inventories and global databases, spatially explicit quantification of century-long dynamics of CH 4 emissions from livestock has been poorly investigated. Using the Tier 2 method adopted from the 2019 Refinement to 2006 IPCC guidelines, we estimated CH 4 emissions from global livestock at a spatial resolution of 0.083° (~9 km at the equator) during the period 1890-2019. We find that global CH 4 emissions from livestock increased from 31.8 [26.5-37.1] (mean [minimum−maximum of 95% confidence interval) Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 1890 to 131.7 [109.6-153.7] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 2019, a fourfold increase in the past 130 years. The growth in global CH 4 emissions mostly occurred after 1950 and was mainly attributed to the cattle sector. Our estimate shows faster growth in livestock CH 4 emissions as compared to the previous Tier 1 estimates and is ~20% higher than the estimate from FAOSTAT for the year 2019. Regionally, South Asia, Brazil, North Africa, China, the United States, Western Europe, and Equatorial Africa shared the majority of the global emissions in the 2010s. South Asia, tropical Africa, and Brazil have dominated the growth in global CH 4 emissions from livestock in the recent three decades. Changes in livestock CH 4 emissions were primarily associated with changes in population and national income and were also affected by the policy, diet shifts, livestock productivity improvement, and international trade. The new geospatial information on the magnitude and trends of livestock CH 4 emissions identifies emission hotspots and spatial-temporal patterns, | 5143 ZHANG et Al.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Zhang

Tian

Shi

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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“…The detailed processes have been described in a previous study (Xu et al, 2017), which focus on manure cropland application and thus do not consider NH 3 emissions from outdoor/grazing, housing, and manure storage. Similar to previous studies (Kang et al, 2016;Xu et al, 2015Xu et al, , 2019, we assume that livestock population per month remained the same due to the small monthly fluctuation of meat, egg, and milk productions (http://www.caaa.cn/). The remaining NH 3 emissions sources are derived from a comprehensive EF database using the arithmetic mean of data collected from the literature and evenly distributed across the 12 months (X.…”

Section: Ngr Estimation Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Chen

Houlton

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Reactive gaseous nitrogen (Ngr) emissions significantly affect Earth's climate system. Disagreement exists, however, over Ngr contributions to short-versus long-term climate forcing, from local to global scales and among different gaseous forms, including NH 3 , NO x , and N 2 O. Here, we provide a comprehensive inventory of Ngr from China's croplands based on a new bottom-up, mass flow-based approach integrated with fine-resolution agricultural activity data and nitrogen emission factors. We demonstrate that China's croplands emit about 8.87 Tg N to the atmosphere in 2014. Across different prefectures, Ngr emission per capita conforms to a "Kuznets curve," that is, first increases then decreases, along the gradient of increasing urbanization. Ngr emission per gross domestic productivity (GDP) decreases exponentially with increasing urbanization or per capita GDP. Furthermore, climate change impact analyses suggest that the global-scale warming effect of China's cropland N 2 O emissions dominate over local cooling effects ascribed to its NH 3 and NO x emissions. Plain Language Summary Reactive gaseous nitrogen, sourced to the world's highest fertilizer application rates in China, imparts local cooling effects on short time scales. The effects are ultimately counterbalanced by nitrous oxide emissions over the long term, leading to substantial warming effects on the global climate system. We base our conclusion on the first-ever high-resolution assessment of reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere from China's croplands. Owing to limited high-resolution reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions data, hitherto, large uncertainties have existed in the detailing the role of China's cropland reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions on climate forcing. This paucity of information poses a challenge for informing China's agricultural sustainability policies with regard to maintaining/increasing agricultural yields while reduces reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions and their warming potential. Our analyses provide essential information for further sustainable N management and the interactions between agriculture and climate change. We provide policy-relevant information for mitigation targets, including the 2°C limit goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, enabling progress related to multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

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“…Recognizing the importance of non-CO 2 mitigation, recent studies have estimated and projected the non-CO 2 GHG emissions trajectories for specific gases in China. − High resolution inventory − and detailed bottom up modeling , have also been conducted to investigate mitigation potential in key sectors such as agriculture. However, a comprehensive multigas projection is still absent in the research literature to support the development of a consistent and integrated non-CO 2 GHG emissions reduction strategy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can China Peak Its Non-CO₂GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?

Teng

Wang

2019

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for about 1/4 of global GHG emissions, and the trend of these emissions, as well as their mitigation potential and abatement cost, are of interest to both scientific researchers and decision makers. We present an integrated model, China Multigas Optimal Reduction Evaluation model (China-MORE), of the nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and fluorinated gases (F-gases) emissions of China, with which we analyze the non-CO2 emission reduction implications of China’s Paris pledges. We find that China’s non-CO2 emissions can peak before 2030 under its Paris pledges, where the cobenefit of coal control policy is the largest contributor to this emissions trajectory due to reduction of CH4 from coal mines. Based on the mitigation cost curve, we show that while the non-CO2 emission reductions are cost-effective at a lower reduction rate, they can only be reduced up to 60–70% due to physical constraints of the reduction technologies, leaving 1.4 Gt CO2-eq of residual emissions in 2050. The growth of non-CO2 emissions in China is largely driven by household consumption of cooling technologies, vehicles, and food. Our findings imply that deep reductions can only be achieved through the deployment of mitigation technologies at a reasonable cost, along with policies to induce behavioral change.

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Northward shift of historical methane emission hotspots from the livestock sector in China and assessment of potential mitigation options

Cited by 30 publications

References 58 publications

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Can China Peak Its Non-CO₂GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?

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Northward shift of historical methane emission hotspots from the livestock sector in China and assessment of potential mitigation options

Cited by 30 publications

References 58 publications

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Can China Peak Its Non-CO2GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Can China Peak Its Non-CO₂GHG Emissions before 2030 by Implementing Its Nationally Determined Contribution?