North Atlantic Oscillation influence and weather types associated with winter total and extreme precipitation events in Spain

Queralt, S.; Hernández, E.; Barriopedro, David; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Casanova, Carlos

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.09.005

Cited by 58 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The highest correlations were obtained for the NAO index, ranging from -0.48 to -0.71. This result coincides with the one found by Queralt et al (2009), who reported that negative winter NAO phases also favor the frequency of extreme precipitation events in Galicia, particularly the intensity of total and extreme precipitation events, suggesting that the relatively wet regions of the IP significantly reflect the intensity rather than the number of days with precipitation. The correlation coefficients between rainfall and the EA-WR index range from -0.2 to -0.6 and between rainfall and the EA and SCAND indices range from 0.25 and 0.6, showing a similar influence of the 3 teleconnection indices on precipitation patterns.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

The state of climate in NW Iberia

Gómez‐Gesteira¹,

Gimeno²,

deCastro³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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Since 1974, there has been a significant increasing trend in land and sea surface temperatures of 0.5 and 0.24°C decade -1 , respectively, in the NW Iberian Peninsula. Over the same period, annual precipitation does not show any trend, although some tendencies have been detected at seasonal scales. A significant positive trend, on average of 2 cm decade -1 , was also observed in sea level rise from 1943 onwards. Ekman transport perpendicular to the coast (upwelling index) showed a decrease from 1975 to 2008 at both annual and seasonal scales. In addition, the flow of the Miño River (the main river in the area) has also decreased at a mean rate of 18 m 3 s -1 decade -1 since 1970. At a synoptic scale, winter cyclone frequency and winter and spring blocking activity have decreased since the 1950s, which may partially explain the winter precipitation decline and the winter and spring temperature increases. These changes in synoptic systems are also in agreement with reported trends in the dominant variability modes of atmospheric circulation affecting NW Iberia, particularly a pronounced positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation from the 1970s to the 1990s.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

The state of climate in NW Iberia

Gómez‐Gesteira¹,

Gimeno²,

deCastro³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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“…These three WTs have a combined frequency of occurrence of about 15%, but are responsible for up to 50% of the precipitation in winter. This confirms that a small number of WTs indeed captures a high percentage of monthly precipitation variability (Trigo and DaCamara, 2000;Paredes et al, 2006) In the Mediterranean coastland the winter precipitation is linked mostly with easterly flows, noticed by Queralt et al (2009) and Muñoz-Diaz and Rodrigo (2006).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

“…At the same time a number of researchers was also interested in adopting a different approach, using slightly different versions of the automated version of the Lamb WTs (e.g., Goodess and Palutikof, 1998;Spellman, 2000;Trigo and DaCamara, 2000;Goodess and Jones, 2002). Queralt et al (2009) presents an analysis of winter intensity and frequency of precipitation based on 102 daily precipitation stations over Spain which have been merged in eight different regions. It was shown the complex regional relationship between the most important large-scale atmospheric pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and precipitation which was also revealed through the modulation of the NAO in the preferred WTs associated to precipitation in each region.…”

Section: Earth Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Circulation weather types and spatial variability of daily precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula

2014

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The relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and daily Iberian rainfall are here explored at high spatial resolution (0.2 • ) using the Jenkinson and Collison automated classification scheme with 26 Weather Types (WTs). The WTs were computed by means of the daily EMULATE Mean Sea Level Pressure dataset (EMSLP) while the high resolution precipitation database corresponds to the recent Iberia02 daily gridded precipitation dataset over the 1950-2003 period. Six monthly indexes relating the WTs and precipitation were analyzed: their Frequency, the Mean Precipitation, the Percentage Contribution, the Area of Influence, the Precipitation Intensity, and Efficiency. Except for the Frequency of the WTs, all other indexes were evaluated studying their spatial distribution over the Iberian Peninsula, focusing on a WT and a month at time. A small number of WTs (7) was found to capture a high percentage (∼70%) of monthly Iberian precipitation. The Westerly WT is the most influent one, followed by the Cyclonic, the Northwesterly and the Southwesterly WTs. Westerly flows, however, do not affect the Mediterranean fringe or the Cantabrian coast, which are dominated by the Easterly and Northerly WTs, respectively. Rainfall along the Mediterranean coastline and the Ebro basin depends on a variety of WTs, but their effects are confined to narrow areas and short temporal intervals, suggesting that local factors such as convective processes, orography and the proximity to a warm water body could play a major role in precipitation processes. We show that the use of daily gridded precipitation dataset holds the advantage of measuring the daily rainfall amount due to each WT directly instead to relying on the predicted values of the regression model as done in previous works.

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“…In the case of extreme winter precipitation, decreasing trends for most of Spain and increasing trends along the Mediterranean coast were detected by García et al (2007). Also for the Spanish region, Queralt et al (2009) found only a weak connection between the trends in extreme values and the circulation types (10 Grosswetterlagen, GWL) while they detected a strong connection between trends in extreme values and those of the snow cover. On the other hand, van den Besselaar et al (2010) established a significant relationship between 27 GWL and extremes of temperature in the whole European sector.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

North Atlantic atmospheric regimes and winter extremes in the Iberian peninsula

OrtizBeviá

Sánchez-Gómez

Alvarez-Garcia

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this study, we assess the relationships between North Atlantic scale atmospheric regimes and extremes of precipitation and minimum temperature in the Iberian peninsula for an extended (DJFM) winter season. As found in previous studies, large scale atmospheric regimes are well represented in climate simulations while the extreme atmospheric variability is not. The relationship between some of these atmospheric regimes and the probability of occurrence of extreme values in simulations of present day climatic variability is validated here with daily observations at 68 meteorological stations all over the Iberian peninsula. Therefore, the possible changes in the probability of occurrence of winter extremes of minimum temperature and precipitation are obtained by projecting the changes in the probability of occurrence of the winter atmospheric regimes. The trends in the frequency of the observed large scale patterns give an indication of what can be expected in the next decades. For the long term (in a century), the changes are obtained directly from the comparison of the frequencies of the atmospheric regimes in the scenario simulations with those of the historical period. The projections obtained in this way are tested for consistency with the results obtained by comparing the changes in the extremes threshold values in the scenario with those of the historical simulations. The results point to a future with less precipitation extreme events and less minimum temperature extreme events in winter in the westerly central part of the Iberian peninsula.Correspondence to: M. J. OrtizBeviá

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North Atlantic Oscillation influence and weather types associated with winter total and extreme precipitation events in Spain

Cited by 58 publications

References 24 publications

The state of climate in NW Iberia

The state of climate in NW Iberia

Circulation weather types and spatial variability of daily precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula

North Atlantic atmospheric regimes and winter extremes in the Iberian peninsula

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