No deaths in the desert: predicted responses of an arid‐adapted bee and its two nesting trees suggest resilience in the face of warming climates

Abstract

1. Species distribution modelling (SDM) has been applied to multiple bee species to examine how they may respond to future climate change. Those studies indicate a variety of likely responses to a warming climate. No SDM approaches, however, have been undertaken for arid-adapted bees, despite their enormous diversity in xeric habitats.2. We applied SDM to an arid-zone allodapine bee, Exoneurella tridentata Houston, 1976 (Apidae: Allodapini), and the two tree species it depends on for nesting substrate, Alectryon oleifolius (Desf.) S.T. Reynolds (Sapindaceae) and Acacia papyrocarpa Benth. (Fabaceae).3. Because of the complete dependency of this bee on these trees, there is the possibility that its vulnerability to climate change may be greater than for bee species that have broader nesting niches, such as ground or non-specific cavity nesting. Using a variety of future climate scenarios, both optimistic and pessimistic, and also the bee's nest plant species as predictor variables of its distribution in some modelling runs, we find that both tree species and E. tridentata are likely to be resilient to future climates. 4. Our findings suggest that for Australian arid-zone bees, at least vulnerability to future climate change may be very different than that for tropical or temperate taxa.

Modelling the climate suitability of green carpenter bee (Xylocopa aerata) and its nesting hosts under current and future scenarios to guide conservation efforts

“…In addition, SDM can be coupled with host plant distribution to assess the range suitability for species combinations (e.g. Silva et al 2018).…”

Historical and future climate change fosters expansion of Australian harvester termites, Drepanotermes

“…We did consider including ranges for particular plant species, explicitly modeling suitable ranges of plant species (e.g., Silva et al. 2018) or incorporating existing ENMs or species distribution models of plants (see Hageer et al. 2017 for Australian shrubland species) in this study.…”

“…Drepanotermes clearly influence surrounding vegetation through nest construction and harvesting activity (Hill 1942, Watson and Perry 1981, Walsh et al 2016), and we would expect to see a stronger signal toward particular food resources, such as Triodia and Acacia. We did consider including ranges for particular plant species, explicitly modeling suitable ranges of plant species (e.g., Silva et al 2018) or incorporating existing ENMs or species distribution models of plants (see Hageer et al 2017 for Australian shrubland species) in this study. However, concrete information on the diet of many Australian harvester termites is lacking (Tayasu et al 2002), anecdotal (Watson 1982) or muddled by the multiple evolutionary lineages within currently described species, making the choice of candidate plants difficult and termite trait assignment impossible.…”

Where and why? Bees, snail shells and climate: Distribution of Rhodanthidium (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) in the Iberian Peninsula

“…) and Exoneurella tridentata Houston (Silva et al . ). Other SDMs of bees have focused only on abiotic variables for orchid bees (Hinojosa‐Díaz et al .…”