New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies

Zimmerman, Rae; Foster, Sheila R.; González, Jorge E.; Jacob, Klaus; Kunreuther, Howard; Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Tollerson, Ernest

doi:10.1111/nyas.14010

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…In fact, although several authors have shown how to model risk in systems which are already networks by construction (Buldyrev et al, 2010;Reed et al, 2009;Rinaldi, 2004;Zio, 2016), fewer have addressed the topic of risk modelling in systems where that is not the case, i.e. systems that are not immediately and manifestly depicted as a network (Hammond et al, 2013;Zimmerman et al, 2019). These include cities, regions or countries, which are complex systems made of different elements (e.g.…”

Section: Positioning and Aimsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systems

Arosio

Martina

Figueiredo

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important but challenging problem. In today's intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relationships call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk evaluated individually at each of its elements. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system to be a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to assess risk more thoroughly. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a holistic approach to analyse risk in complex systems based on the construction and study of a graph, the mathematical structure to model connections between elements. We demonstrate that representing a complex system such as an urban settlement by means of a graph, and using the techniques made available by the branch of mathematics called graph theory, will have at least two advantages. First, it is possible to establish analogies between certain graph metrics (e.g. authority, degree and hub values) and the risk variables (exposure, vulnerability and resilience) and leverage these analogies to obtain a deeper knowledge of the exposed system to a hazard (structure, weaknesses, etc.). Second, it is possible to use the graph as a tool to propagate the damage into the system, for not only direct but also indirect and cascading effects, and, ultimately, to better understand the risk mechanisms of natural hazards in complex systems. The feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.

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Section: Positioning and Aimsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systems

Arosio

Martina

Figueiredo

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…As seen in Figure 2, one illustration of an urban energy system resilience deficit is that many of the power plants (including the five largest power plants directly within city boundaries, representing at least 2.88 GW) are located in flood zones. Not shown here are the power substations and transmission and distribution infrastructure that also are exposed to these types of risk (Zimmerman et al, 2019). For example, a storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy inundated the Con Edison East 13th Street facility, flooding two transmission substations and producing an intense electric arc (Zimmerman et al, 2019).…”

Section: Electric Power System Vulnerability Concernsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Not shown here are the power substations and transmission and distribution infrastructure that also are exposed to these types of risk (Zimmerman et al, 2019). For example, a storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy inundated the Con Edison East 13th Street facility, flooding two transmission substations and producing an intense electric arc (Zimmerman et al, 2019). All in all, 88% of the city's steam generating capacity, 53% of in-city electric generation capacity, 37% of transmission substation capacity, and 12% of large distribution substation capacity are located within the 100-year floodplain (City of New York, 2013b).…”

Section: Electric Power System Vulnerability Concernsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Saltwater corrosion damaged many of Con Edison electric systems which promulgated cascading effects throughout the interdependent electric system. The storm disrupted service to approximately 8.66 million customers, some for up to 2 weeks (Zimmerman et al, 2019). Likewise, Hurricane Irene disrupted service to about 6.69 million customers (Zimmerman et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The storm disrupted service to approximately 8.66 million customers, some for up to 2 weeks (Zimmerman et al, 2019). Likewise, Hurricane Irene disrupted service to about 6.69 million customers (Zimmerman et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Taminiau¹,

Byrne

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WIREs Energy & Environment

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Research into urban sustainability increasingly deploys advanced analytics and large-scale data to investigate possible sustainable energy options. This paper reviews several available data-driven approaches that answer urban sustainability questions. One such approach is applied to identify energy consumption and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation potential in New York City at the electricity network level with the objective of improving the city's resilience to expected impacts of climate change. Electric system resilience is, in part, dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of consumption and potential sustainable energy generation which is investigated here by separating the city into 68 electricity networks and evaluating their generationconsumption interaction pattern. The analysis reveals that New York City could be home to about 10 GWp of rooftop solar installations-sufficient to cover approximately 25% of annual city electricity consumption and 53% of daylight hour consumption. Localized electricity import-export dimensions are explored for each of the 68 electricity networks and we identify an excess 3.1 TWh electricity supply per year if the entire technical potential of rooftop solar PV is deployed. This excess electricity supply is roughly equivalent to an annual $734 million value which could benefit low-income areas in the city.

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New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies

Cited by 17 publications

References 43 publications

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systems

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systems

City‐scale urban sustainability: Spatiotemporal mapping of distributed solar power for New York City

Human-Made Disasters: Electric Power and Transit Linked Outages

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