New and improved methods to estimate day-ahead quantity and quality of solar irradiance

Estimation of photovoltaic generation forecasting models using limited information

“…Given a time series composed of generated power measurements and temperature forecasts (or measurements, if available), suitable tests can be performed on the data in order to detect portions of the power curve which have been generated under a clear-sky condition; this allows for fitting the parameters of the PVUSA model to such data by using theoretical clear-sky irradiance (e.g., via the model (11), (12)) in the regressor of (7) in place of the actual measured irradiance. This section deals with the derivation of such tests, which will be referred to as CS tests in the sequel.…”

“…Concerning photovoltaic (PV) power generation, researchers have devoted much attention to the problem of obtaining accurate generation forecasts over different time horizons, e.g., day-ahead and hour-ahead [7,8]. Most contributions, however, focus on the problem of solar irradiance prediction [9,10,11,12]. To tackle this problem, several approaches based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) [13,14,15] or Support Vector Machines [16] can be found in the literature.…”

Real‐time estimation of solar irradiance and module temperature from maximum power point condition

“…Thus, developing accurate techniques to estimate solar irradiance is essential to improve performance of PV systems [6]. Moreover, estimation of solar irradiance can be used in other fields such as agriculture, environmental science [7], and modelling the AC output of small-scale PV systems [8]. Many researches have been conducted in this area.…”

Model estimation for solar generation forecasting using cloud cover data

“…In this respect, cloud cover measurements derived from satellite imaging are an exception, since they can be made available for specific locations with good spatial and temporal resolution (up to 2.5 km × 2.5 km and 30 min, respectively) [22]. Based on such data, suitable models can be estimated for irradiance forecasting purposes (see [23,24,25] for details). Irradiance forecasts can be used as inputs to a plant generation model in order to provide energy production forecasts.…”