Neural Network Enhancement Forecast of Dengue Fever Outbreaks in Coastal Region

Abstract

Dengue Fever is among the world’s fastest-spreading mosquito-borne illnesses. In Indonesia, more than 33 percent of the world community is in danger. The Coastal Zone is one of the region most at risk of contracting dengue fever, particularly from the social and environmental sectors, so an early diagnostic study must deal with this efficiently and effectively. This research aimed to predict and identify the coastal areas with the most severe dengue fever potential to avoid dengue fever. The methodology used is a neural network-based sensitivity Analysis and multiple linear regression. Bagan Deli, Sibolga, Tapanuli Tengah, Langkat, Medan are samples of the coastal regions used in this study. The reports used was secondary data for dengue fever patients suffering and meteorological parameters, the model used in [5-5-1] for prediction, for five years from 2014-2019. The results showed which Langkat (0.4936), Serdang Bedagai (0.4695), The Middle Of Tapanuli (0.4399), Medan (0.4313), and Sibolga (0.3133) are perhaps the most prevalent areas affected by dengue fever with a value of 89.8 percent. The Result is temperature and humidity are the conditions that most affect the transmission of dengue fever.

How Do Climate Variables Affect the Transmission of Dengue Infection in South and Southeast Asia: A Scoping Review

“…According to the findings of studies which have included wind speed, one study has revealed that low wind speed prevents dengue outbreak (Ahmed & Siddiqui, 2014) while another study has found a strong correlation between wind speed and DHF incidence (Minarti et al, 2021). In contrast, five studies included in the review have concluded that there is no correlation between wind speed and DHF incidence or dengue cases (Arsin et al, 2020;Harumy & Ginting, 2021;Noppradit et al, 2021;S. A. Rahman et al, 2018).…”

“…However, this finding has found to be statistically not significant (r= 0.76, p=0.492) (Minarti et al, 2021). Apart from the above findings, five studies included in the review have concluded that there is no correlation between wind speed and DHF incidence or dengue cases (Arsin et al, 2020;Harumy & Ginting, 2021;Noppradit et al, 2021;S. A. Rahman et al, 2018).…”

“…A study done in Indonesia during the period of 2014 -2019 period and two studies in India showed that there is no significant association between the number of dengue cases and humidity (Harumy & Ginting, 2021).…”

“…Annual relative humidity, mean, maximum and minimum humidity and weekly relative humidity were humidity variables used in those studies. Other climate related variables included in the studies were barometric pressure, (Sriklin, Kajornkasirat, & Puttinaovarat, 2021), average maximum wind speed (Ahmed & Siddiqui, 2014;Arsin et al, 2020), wind velocity (IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2018); Ishak & Kasman, 2018;(Harumy & Ginting, 2021;Jat & Mala, 2017;Minarti et al, 2021); Harumy & Ginting, 2021(Ishak & Kasman, 2018 annual sunshine duration (Jaya & Folmer, 2021) and dew point in a day (Sahay, 2018). Most of the climate related data were obtained from the government mereological departments of relevant countries except in 28 articles where satellite data on climate were used.…”