Negative and Engaged: Sentiments towards the 2016 Migrant Quota Referendum in Hungarian Online Media

Abstract

The 2016 migrant quota referendum and the preceding anti-migrant and anti-EU campaign in Hungary led to a milestone in manipulating public fear of societal change by new East-Central European populism. This article maps and analyzes sentiments toward the referendum in Hungarian-language online media, using software-supported sentiment analysis of mentions of the quota referendum published online between 1 September and 31 October 2016. Results show a preponderance of negative sentiments over positive ones in both pro-government and independent media and the dominance of independent media in the coverage of the event. Coverage of the referendum received more weight in pro-government media compared to their lesser online presence, but this was fueled by astroturfed online discussion communities and content disseminated from at least one Russian state propaganda source.

Populist Juggling with Fear: The Case of Hungary

“…50 However, the most important messages were not channelled only through these information networks. In the case of particularly important topics, daily communication was complemented with targeted campaigns, 51 including pro-government demonstrations and an overwhelming amount of propagandistic content (on street placards, television, and social media advertising). at the centre of these distinctive performative events are the so-called "national consultations" (which were in a few cases complemented with referendums 52 ).…”

Types of Solidarity in a Hybrid Regime: The Hungarian Case

“…Even the Refugee and Migration Integration Fund, where non-governmental organizations could apply for EU funds, has been wholly suspended. It is no surprise, then, that today refugees are not only disfavoured but indeed unable to enter Hungarian territory when they arrive from a safe third country, according to Hungarian legislation (Tóth 2021).…”

“…) and using offensive governmental campaigns against the political opposition and minorities (Gall 2016;Tóth 2021).…”

“…They build conspiracy theories against minorities, international elites and immigrants, with the promise to defend ordinary people and those belonging to the nation from all evil influences (Bozóki and Hegedüs 2018). The practical tools to achieve these goals include: occupying public and private media (Bajomi-Lázár 2013; Nagy et al 2018) and using offensive governmental campaigns against the political opposition and minorities (Gall 2016; Tóth 2021).…”