Multiple waves of COVID-19: a pathway model approach

Vasconcelos, Giovani L.; Pessoa, Nathan L.; Silva, Natan B.; Macêdo, A. M. S.; Brum, Arthur A.; Ospina, Raydonal; Tirnakli, Uğur

doi:10.1007/s11071-022-08179-8

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Vasconcelos et al [106] apply a generalized pathway model, with time-dependent parameters, to describe the mortality curves of the COVID-19 for several countries that exhibit multiple waves of infections. The model is in good agreement with the data for selected cases under study, showing the starting and peak dates for each successive wave.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Coccia

2023

AIMSPH

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<abstract> <p>Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.</p> </abstract>

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Coccia

2023

AIMSPH

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“…As of 8 November 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) has documented 772 million confirmed cases and approximately 7.0 million cumulative fatalities (1). These statistics, however, are likely to be underestimated, owing to a lack of sufficient testing or poor reporting practices in the past years (2). Following a rigorous campaign involving measures such as vaccinations, medications, and restrictions on social activities, the COVID-19 pandemic has been brought under control.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 10-valent composite mRNA vaccine against both influenza and COVID-19

Wang,

Ma,

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 viruses has had a persistent and significant impact on global public health for four years. Recently, there has been a resurgence of seasonal influenza transmission worldwide. The co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses results in a dual burden on communities. Additionally, the pandemic potential of zoonotic influenza viruses, such as avian Influenza A/H5N1 and A/H7N9, remains a concern. Therefore, a combined vaccine against all these respiratory diseases is in urgent need. mRNA vaccines, with their superior efficacy, speed in development, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness, offer a promising solution for such infectious diseases and potential future pandemics. In this study, we present FLUCOV-10, a novel 10-valent mRNA vaccine created from our proven platform. This vaccine encodes hemagglutinin (HA) proteins from four seasonal influenza viruses and two avian influenza viruses with pandemic potential, as well as spike proteins from four SARS-CoV-2 variants. A two-dose immunization with the FLUCOV-10 elicited robust immune responses in mice, producing IgG antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, and antigen-specific cellular immune responses against all the vaccine-matched viruses of influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Remarkably, the FLUCOV-10 immunization provided complete protection in mouse models against both homologous and heterologous strains of influenza and SARS-CoV-2. These results highlight the potential of FLUCOV-10 as an effective vaccine candidate for the prevention of influenza and COVID-19.

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“…However, due to the reasons mentioned above, the pandemic spread has a complex character. Therefore, various nonlinear parametric and time series models are also used to describe the spread dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic [11][12][13]. The nonlinear time series method that we will use in this study emerged in the 1980s and is widely used today in the analysis of the dynamics of nonlinear systems in various elds such as physics, biology, and economics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An explication of the 800-day COVID-19 pandemic spread behaviour of seven countries from different continents and the world total in a non-linear time series framework

Tatlipinar

KAVAL

2023

Preprint

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The time series consisting of 800-day COVID-19 spread data from USA, Germany, Brazil, India, Japan, Egypt, Turkey, and world total taken from the Our World in Data database, was analysed within the framework of non-linear time series. Correlogram diagrams, Fourier power spectra and Lyapunov exponents were examined for each series and it was seen that they did not behave linearly. For these non-linear time series, the lag time and embedded dimension were calculated and 3-dimensional phase spaces for each case were constructed. By examining the constructed phase space profiles, the spread dynamics of COVID-19 in each country and the world total is discussed comparatively. As a result of the phase space analysis, it was seen that the spread of COVID-19 was complex and three different complex behaviour patterns emerged according to the examined countries. This behavioral decomposition was also seen in the correlogram diagrams of the countries, the Fourier power spectrum and the Lyapunov exponents. The nonlinear time series method we used will contribute to the understanding of the qualitative characteristics of the complex behaviour of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Multiple waves of COVID-19: a pathway model approach

Cited by 7 publications

References 24 publications

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

A 10-valent composite mRNA vaccine against both influenza and COVID-19

An explication of the 800-day COVID-19 pandemic spread behaviour of seven countries from different continents and the world total in a non-linear time series framework

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