Multiple Indices of Northern Hemisphere Cyclone Activity, Winters 1949–99

Paciorek, Christopher J.; Risbey, James S.; Ventura, Valérie; Rosen, Richard D.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1573:mionhc>2.0.co;2

Cited by 116 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 57 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Various metrics can be used to diagnose mid-latitude cyclone activity, including eddy kinetic energy (Hu et al, 2004), temporal variability of sea-level pressure, temperature or meridional wind (Harnik and Chang, 2003), the meridional temperature gradient, and the Eady growth rate (Paciorek et al, 2002). Some studies have used the probability distribution of sea-level pressure as a diagnostic of cyclone frequency (Murazaki and Hess, 2006;Lin et al, 2008;Racherla and Adams, 2008).…”

Section: Detection and Tracking Of Mid-latitude Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We show that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across eastern North America at 40°–50° N (the southern climatological storm track) is a strong predictor of stagnation and ozone pollution days in the eastern US. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, going back to 1948, shows a significant long-term decline in the number of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in that track starting in 1980 (−0.15 a−1). The more recent but shorter NCEP/DOE Reanalysis (1979–2006) shows similar interannual variability in cyclone frequency but no significant long-term trend. Analysis of NOAA daily weather maps for 1980–2006 supports the trend detected in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. A GISS general circulation model (GCM) simulation including historical forcing by greenhouse gases reproduces this decreasing cyclone trend starting in 1980. Such a long-term decrease in mid-latitude cyclone frequency over the 1980–2006 period may have offset by half the ozone air quality gains in the northeastern US from reductions in anthropogenic emissions. We find that if mid-latitude cyclone frequency had not declined, the northeastern US would have been largely compliant with the ozone air quality standard by 2001. Mid-latitude cyclone frequency is expected to decrease further over the coming decades in response to greenhouse warming and this will necessitate deeper emission reductions to achieve a given air quality goal.

show abstract

Section: Detection and Tracking Of Mid-latitude Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This aspect has been explored in many recent publications based on observational datasets: While some authors (e.g., Schinke, 1993;Lambert, 1996;Paciorek et al, 2002) identified significant changes in extra-tropical cyclone activity…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Pinto¹,

Fröhlich

Leckebusch³

et al. 2007

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

108

120

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany.The climate change experiments correspond to the SRESScenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

show abstract

“…Serreze et al, 1993;Sinclair, 1994;Serreze et al, 1997;Lambert et al, 2002;Paciorek et al, 2002;Cao and Zhang, 2004;Zhang et al, 2004). Some tracking schemes have been applied to both cyclones and anticyclones (Pezza and Ambrizzi, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, part 1: Arctic

2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An analysis of late twentieth and twenty-first century predictions of Arctic circulation patterns in a ten-model ensemble of global climate system models, using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs), is presented. The model simulations were conducted in support of the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). The analysis demonstrates the utility of SOMs for climate analysis, both as a tool to evaluate the accuracy of climate model predictions, and to provide a useful alternative view of future climate change.It is found that not all models accurately simulate the frequency of occurrence of Arctic circulation patterns. Some of the models tend to overpredict strong high-pressure patterns while other models overpredict the intensity of cyclonic circulation regimes. In general, the ensemble of models predicts an increase in cyclonically dominated circulation patterns during both the winter and summer seasons, with the largest changes occurring during the first half of the twenty-first century. Analysis of temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the different circulation patterns reveals coherent patterns that are consistent with the different circulation regimes and highlight the dependence of local changes in these quantities to changes in the synoptic scale circulation patterns.

show abstract

Multiple Indices of Northern Hemisphere Cyclone Activity, Winters 1949–99

Cited by 116 publications

References 57 publications

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, part 1: Arctic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About