Multinational data show that conspiracy beliefs are associated with the perception (and reality) of poor national economic performance

Abstract

While a great deal is known about the individual difference factors associated with conspiracy beliefs, much less is known about the country-level factors that shape people's willingness to believe conspiracy theories. In the current article we discuss the possibility that willingness to believe conspiracy theories might be shaped by the perception (and reality) of poor economic performance at the national level. To test this notion, we surveyed 6723 participants from 36 countries. In line with predictions, propensity to believe conspiracy theories was negatively associated with perceptions of current and future national economic vitality. Furthermore, countries with higher GDP per capita tended to have lower belief in conspiracy theories. The data suggest that conspiracy beliefs are not just caused by intrapsychic factors but are also shaped by difficult economic circumstances for which distrust might have a rational basis.

Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories

“…Drawing on institutional theories 153 and democratic theories 154 , scholars have argued that economic vitality is a proxy for government competence, and so a valid indicator of whether the government can be trusted. Somewhat consistent with this notion, individual-level data show that people believe conspiracy theories more when their perceptions of current and future economic performance within their nation is relatively poor 143 .…”

“…However, although individuals who self-report uncertainty avoidance are higher in conspiracy belief, there is limited evidence that cultures with high levels of uncertainty avoidance are prone to believing conspiracies 145 . Similarly, individual perceptions of economic inequality within a nation are robustly associated with conspiracy beliefs 147 , but the pattern is not reliably observed when objective levels of inequality (such as the GINI coefficient 143 ) are used. Finally, people with stronger collectivist (versus individualist) orientations have higher conspiracy beliefs 10 , 141 .…”

“…In the face of these underwhelming outcomes from interventions, many argue it is easier to prevent conspiracy theories from developing rather than to stop them once formed 136 , 180 . It is perhaps unrealistic to expect psychological studies to examine the macro factors outlined in this Review, but there is general agreement on the need to play the long game: fortifying the integrity of governments and other institutions to remove the fertile ground in which conspiracy theories grow 143 .…”

“…In two cross-national datasets, participants rated their agreement with globally recognized conspiracy theories (for example, that the Moon landing was faked or that 9/11 was an inside job) 139,140 . Three other datasets [141][142][143] used measures that assess an overall conspiracist mindset or worldview but do not make reference to any single conspiracy theory (for example "events which superficially seem to lack a connection are often the result of secret activities" 98 or "I think that the official version of the events given by the authorities very often hides the truth") 144 .…”

“…To date, researchers have identified only two nation-level variables that consistently predict conspiracy beliefs across multiple datasets: economic vitality and corruption. First, countries with lower GDP per capita are more likely to endorse conspiracy theories 143 . This dovetails with political science research showing that trust in government tends to increase when the economy is strong and decline when the economy struggles [148][149][150][151][152] .…”