Modernization: Theories and Facts

Abstract

What makes political regimes rise, endure, and fall? The main question is whether the observed close relation between levels of economic development and the incidence of democratic regimes is due to democracies being more likely to emerge or only more likely to survive in the more developed countries. We answer this question using data concerning 135 countries that existed at any time between 1950 and 1990. We find that the level of economic development does not affect the probability of transitions to democracy but that affluence does make democratic regimes more stable. The relation between affluence and democratic stability is monotonic, and the breakdown of democracies at middle levels of development is a phenomenon peculiar to the Southern Cone of Latin America. These patterns also appear to have been true of the earlier period, but dictatorships are more likely to survive in wealthy countries that became independent only after 1950. We conclude that modernization need not generate democracy but democracies survive in countries that are modern.

Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?

“…Gleditsch and Ward, 2000), the democracy index used Socioeconomic development has long been believed to be conducive to the emergence (e.g. Lipset, 1959;Burkhart and Lewis-Beck, 1994) or survival (Przeworski and Limongi, 1997) of democracy, so changes in democracy may be related to changes in per capita income. Growth of per capita income is measured as the average annual change from 1975-99.…”

Voting Counts: Participation in the Measurement of Democracy

“…29. Przeworski takes the cross-sectional relationship as a given, but challenges the "endogenous" explanation for it (Przeworski and Limongi, 1997;Przeworski et al, 2000). His "exogenous" account contends that democracy arises as frequently in poor countries as in rich ones, but that "once established, democracies are likely to die in poor countries and certain to survive in wealthy ones" Przeworski and Limongi (1997:167).…”

Is Social Revolution a Passing Phenomenon?

“…The question then is, what is the level of democracy that could assure the optimal level of political stability? Although many scholars have assumed that today's democratic regimes are stabilizing [35][36][37], there have been some extensions of those arguments. For instance, Tiruneh [34] has argued that the political system does not merely stabilize once countries become highly democratic, but, due to continuous economic development, it may evolve indefinitely.…”