Modelling waves and surges during the 1953 storm

Wolf, Judith; Flather, R. A.

doi:10.1098/rsta.2005.1572

Cited by 77 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In Europe the storm surge of 1953 had a major impact with the loss of over 1800 lives in the Netherlands and 300 in southeast England (Wolf and Flather 2005). This event .…”

Section: The Impacts Of Sea-level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

et al. 2008

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The coastal zone has changed profoundly during the 20 th century and as a result society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise and variability. This and in situ observational activities need to be sustained and new activities supported. To the extent that we are able to sustain these observations, research programmes utilizing the resulting data should be able to significantly improve our understanding and narrow projections of future sea-level rise and variability.4

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“…In Europe the storm surge of 1953 had a major impact with the loss of over 1800 lives in the Netherlands and 300 in southeast England (Wolf and Flather 2005). This event .…”

Section: The Impacts Of Sea-level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

et al. 2008

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“…Over the past century, the most serious case took place in the southern North Sea in February 1953. A severe storm induced a threemeters-high surge (Wolf and Flather, 2005) combined with a high spring tide, which caused the flooding of a large part of the Netherlands (Gerritsen, 2005), and to a slighter degree in the UK and Germany. This catastrophe was responsible for 1836 deaths (Gerritsen, 2005;Wolf and Flather, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A severe storm induced a threemeters-high surge (Wolf and Flather, 2005) combined with a high spring tide, which caused the flooding of a large part of the Netherlands (Gerritsen, 2005), and to a slighter degree in the UK and Germany. This catastrophe was responsible for 1836 deaths (Gerritsen, 2005;Wolf and Flather, 2005). In the last fifteen years in France, the storms Martin and Xynthia (Bertin et al, 2012a) hit the western coast and caused the flooding of large coastal areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of static flood modeling techniques: application to contrasting marshes flooded during Xynthia (western France)

Breilh

Chaumillon

Bertin

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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This study aims to assess the performance of raster-based flood modeling methods on a wide diversity of coastal marshes. These methods are applied to the flooding associated with the storm Xynthia, which severely hit the western coast of France in February 2010. Static and semi-dynamic methods are assessed using a combination of LiDAR data, post-storm delineation of flooded areas and sea levels originating from both tide gauge measurements and storm surge modeling. Static methods are applied to 27 marshes showing a wide geomorphological diversity. It appears that these methods are suitable for marshes with a small distance between the coastline and the landward boundary of the marsh, which causes these marshes to flood rapidly. On the contrary, these methods overpredict flooded areas for large marshes where the distance between the coastline and the landward boundary of the marsh is large, because the flooding cannot be considered as instantaneous. In this case, semi-dynamic methods based on surge overflowing volume calculations can improve the flooding prediction significantly. This study suggests that static and semi-dynamic flood modeling methods can be attractive and quickly deployed to rapidly produce predictive flood maps of vulnerable areas under certain conditions, particularly for small distances between the coastline and the landward boundary of the low-lying coastal area

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“…The 1953 HW at Lowestoft was 1 in 270 years at 2008 MSL, increasing to 1 in 400 years when offset for MSL change; although the wave conditions that coincided with the 1953 surge (e.g. Flather, 1984;Wolf and Flather, 2005;Spencer et al, 2015) were much larger, and would not have reduced (and more likely increased) the JL return period in the same way as those of the 2013 event. However, since river levels were not included in this assessment, it is important to differentiate between open coast and tidal-river/estuary locations.…”

Section: Coastal Defence Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

Wadey¹,

Brown²,

Haigh³

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The nationalscale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

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Modelling waves and surges during the 1953 storm

Cited by 77 publications

References 26 publications

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

Assessment of static flood modeling techniques: application to contrasting marshes flooded during Xynthia (western France)

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

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