Modelling urbanization patterns in two diverse regions of the world

Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Alexandridis, Kostas; Müller, Daniel

doi:10.1080/17474230601058310

Cited by 79 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Parameterization of this application of the LTM follows procedures used in Pijanowski et al (2005Pijanowski et al ( , 2006. The following rules/assumptions were made for the forecasts:…”

Section: The Land Transformation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

Mishra¹,

Cherkauer²,

Niyogi³

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

109

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This study examines the relative impact of regional land-cover/land-use patterns and projected future climate change on hydrologic processes. Historic, present and projected future land cover data were used to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model using observed meteorological forcing data for 1983-2007 over Wisconsin (USA). The current and projected future (year 2030) land cover data were developed using the land transformation model (LTM). The VIC model simulations were driven using downscaled and bias-corrected projected future climate forcing from three different Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 general circulation models (GCMs): HadCM3, PCM and GFDL. Sensitivity results conducted on a single grid cell show that annual average surface runoff and baseflow were increased by 8 and 6 mm, respectively, while evapotranspiration was reduced by 15 mm when a fully forested grid was converted to cropland. Results also indicate that annual average net radiation and sensible heat flux were reduced considerably due to forest-to-cropland conversion, and the reduction was more prominent in winter and spring seasons due to effect of snow albedo. Forest-to-cropland conversion also resulted in increased latent heat flux in summer (JJA) while this land transformation increased the snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM). Complete conversion of forest to cropland resulted in a decrease of the radiative surface temperature on an annual basis with more cooling occurring in winter and summer. Impacts of historic deforestation were similar to what was expected based on a single grid sensitivity analysis.

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“…Parameterization of this application of the LTM follows procedures used in Pijanowski et al (2005Pijanowski et al ( , 2006. The following rules/assumptions were made for the forecasts:…”

Section: The Land Transformation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

Mishra¹,

Cherkauer²,

Niyogi³

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

109

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show abstract

“…Generally, a Kappa value between 0.01 and 0.20 indicates slight agreement, and PCM results from 40% to 60% are interpreted as acceptable models [23,25,71,75]. Thus, while the Kappa value indicates that agreement would be too poor to accept, if this was an actual model, this example model might be acceptable when considering the PCM.…”

Section: Accuracy and Reliabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They are driven by the logic of the modeler and consist of the variables built into the model, which drive the connecting neurons. These connections work out solutions between inputs (i.e., drivers of change) and outputs (e.g., locations of change occurring between two time periods) using non-linear functions and weights [71].…”

Section: Accuracy and Reliabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model

Lee

Newman

2017

IJGI

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Abstract:In the past two centuries, many American urban areas have experienced significant expansion in both populating and depopulating cities. The pursuit of bigger, faster, and more growth-oriented planning parallels a situation where municipal decline has also been recognized as a global epidemic. In recent decades many older industrial cities have experienced significant depopulation, job loss, economic decline, and massive increases in vacant and abandoned properties due primarily to losses in industry and relocating populations. Despite continuous economic decline and depopulation, many of these so-called 'shrinking cities' still chase growth-oriented planning policies, due partially to inabilities to accurately predict future urban growth/decline patterns. This capability is critical to understanding land use alternation patterns and predicting future possible scenarios for the development of more proactive land use policies dealing with urban decline and regeneration. In this research, the city of Chicago, Illinois, USA is used as a case site to test an urban land use change model that predicts urban decline in a shrinking city, using vacant land as a proxy. Our approach employs the Land Transformation Model (LTM), which combines Geographic Information Systems and artificial neural networks to forecast land use change. Results indicate that the LTM is a good resource to simulate urban vacant land changes. Mobility and housing market conditions seem to be the primary variables contributing to decline.

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“…In developing rules to assess land cover dynamics, there is the temptation to over-parameterize the model and hence 'over fit', rendering the model deterministic (e.g. Brown et al 2005;Pijanowski, Alexandridis and Mueller 2006). Calibration of the model is commonly accomplished by comparing the model outcomes to a series of classified satellite images, and fine-tuning the parameter values, rules and relationships to generate improved model fit.…”

Section: Representing Uncertainty: Model Calibration and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Land use change: complexity and comparisons

Rindfuss

Entwisle

Walsh

et al. 2008

Journal of Land Use Science

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Modelling urbanization patterns in two diverse regions of the world

Cited by 79 publications

References 12 publications

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States

Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model

Land use change: complexity and comparisons

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