Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and Futuna

Brault, Antoine; Kiem, Cécile Tran; Couteaux, Clément; Olié, Valérie; Paireau, Juliette; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Ghosn, Jade; Martin‐Blondel, Guillaume; Bosetti, Paolo; Cauchemez, Simon

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100634

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Finally, Brault et al estimated that 11% of hospitalizations could be averted if antivirals with 50% effectiveness were administered to half of all high-risk cases in Wallis and Futuna, where ∼70% of individuals have at least two doses of vaccines, during an epidemic wave with a doubling time of 2-3 days. 8 In the closest scenario we had simulated (i.e R % = 2, 46% effectiveness of antivirals, 50% vaccination coverage and 500 tests/100K/day), we estimated that severe cases could be reduced by 7% in Brazil (Figure 2B), which has a similar demography to Wallis and Futuna (i.e. median age = 33 and 35 years in Brazil and Wallis and Futuna respectively; proportion of individuals ≥65 years = 10% and 13% respectively).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various studies have estimated ∼10% – 40% reduction in severe disease outcomes if antivirals were distributed to 20% – 50% of all symptomatic infected individuals. 5,7,8 However, none of these studies have accounted for the diagnostic capacity required to identify and treat these cases with antivirals. There have been substantial gaps in COVID-19 testing equity across country income groups throughout the pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs

Han

Hannay

Carmona

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Oral antivirals can potentially reduce the burden of COVID-19. However, low SARS-CoV-2 clinical testing rates in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (mean <10 tests/100,000 people/day, July 2022) makes the development of effective test-and-treat programs challenging. Here, we used an agent-based model to investigate how testing rates and strategies could affect development of test-and-treat programs in three representative LMICs. We find that at <10 tests/100,000 people/day, test-and-treat programs are unlikely to have any impact on the public health burden of COVID-19. At low effective transmission rates (R_t≤1.2), increasing to 100 tests/100,000 people/day and allowing uncapped distribution of antivirals to LMICs (estimate = 26,000,000-90,000,000 courses/year for all LMICs), could avert up to 65% of severe cases, particularly in countries with older populations. For higher R_t, significant reductions in severe cases are only possible by substantially increasing testing rates or restricting clinical testing to those with higher risk of severe disease.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs

Han

Hannay

Carmona

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since the COVID-19 outbreak, policymakers have turned to mathematicians in predicting cases and crafting strategies that can mitigate the spread of infection [ [7] , [8] , [9] ]. There are numerous modelling studies considering COVID-19 variants [ [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

Mendoza

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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“…Since the COVID-19 outbreak, policymakers turn to mathematicians in predicting cases and crafting strategies that can mitigate the spread of infection. 8,9,10 There are numerous modelling studies considering the COVID-19 variants. [11][12][13][14][15] However, only a few published works tackle the lifting of the mask mandate considering the Omicron variant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Koreans be ‘FREE’ from mask wearing?: Advanced mathematical model can suggest the idea

Mendoza

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background It was found that more than half of the population in Korea had a prior COVID-19 infection. In 2022, most nonpharmaceutical interventions, except mask-wearing indoors, had been lifted. Discussions about easing the indoor mask mandate are ongoing. Methods We developed an age-structured compartmental model that distinguishes vaccination history, prior infection, and medical staff from the rest of the population. Contact patterns among hosts were separated based on age and location. We simulated scenarios with the lifting of the mask mandate all at once or sequentially according to the locations. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of a new variant assuming that it has higher transmissibility and risk of breakthrough infection. Findings We found that the peak size of administered severe patients might not exceed 1,100 when the mask mandate is lifted everywhere, and 800 if the mask mandate only remains in the hospital. If the mask mandate is lifted in a sequence (except hospital), then the peak size of administered severe patients did not exceed 650. Moreover, if the new variant have both of higher transmissibility and immune reduction therefore the effective reproductive number of the new variant is approximately 3 times higher than the current variant, additional interventions may be needed to keep the administered severe patients from exceeding 2,000, which is the critical level we set. Interpretation Our findings showed that the lifting of the mask mandate, except in hospitals, would be applicable more manageable if it is implemented sequentially. Considering a new variant, we found that depending on the population immunity and transmissibility of the variant, wearing masks and other interventions may be necessary for controlling the disease.

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Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and Futuna

Cited by 5 publications

References 40 publications

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs

Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs

Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

Can Koreans be ‘FREE’ from mask wearing?: Advanced mathematical model can suggest the idea

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