2007
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2007.00368.x
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Abstract: In this paper copulas are used to generate bivariate discrete distributions. These distributions are fitted to soccer data from the English Premier League. An interesting aspect of these data is that the primary variable of interest, the discrete pair shots-for and shots-against, exhibits negative dependence; thus, in particular, we apply bivariate Poisson-related distributions that allow such dependence. The paper focuses on Archimedian copulas, for which the dependence structure is fully determined by a one-… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2
1
1
1

Citation Types

0
30
0

Year Published

2008
2008
2021
2021

Publication Types

Select...
7
3

Relationship

0
10

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 47 publications
(30 citation statements)
references
References 19 publications
0
30
0
Order By: Relevance
“…Logistic regression is similar and has been used in cricket (Scarf and Shi, 2005). Alternatively, for football, goals for and goals against (the reference side) may be modelled using bivariate Poisson models (Maher, 1982;Lee, 1997;Dixon and Coles, 1997;Rue and Salvesen, 2000;Karlis and Ntzoufras, 2003;McHale and Scarf, 2007). For simplicity, for the numerical investigation in the following section we use Maher's model which assumes independent Poisson distributions for each of the number of goals for and against (the reference team) with means specific to the past performances of each team.…”
Section: Prediction Model For Individual Tiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Logistic regression is similar and has been used in cricket (Scarf and Shi, 2005). Alternatively, for football, goals for and goals against (the reference side) may be modelled using bivariate Poisson models (Maher, 1982;Lee, 1997;Dixon and Coles, 1997;Rue and Salvesen, 2000;Karlis and Ntzoufras, 2003;McHale and Scarf, 2007). For simplicity, for the numerical investigation in the following section we use Maher's model which assumes independent Poisson distributions for each of the number of goals for and against (the reference team) with means specific to the past performances of each team.…”
Section: Prediction Model For Individual Tiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Mchale and Scarf [15] modelled the bivariate distribution of the number of goal shots by each team in 1048 soccer matches from the English Premier League. The number of shots by home and away teams are negatively correlated (ρ = −.269, Spearman correlationρ s = −.265), and were fitted to negative binomial marginals.…”
Section: Illustrative Examplesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As McHale and Scarf (2007) discuss, the relationship between the expected number of shots and player actions is considered using a regression model. However, for ease of interpretation of the coefficients in the model, we use a simplification.…”
Section: Match Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%