Modelling seasonal dynamics, population stability, and pest control in Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae)

Abstract

BackgroundThe invasive temperate mosquito Aedes japonicus japonicus is a potential vector for various infectious diseases and therefore a target of vector control measures. Even though established in Germany, it is unclear whether the species has already reached its full distribution potential. The possible range of the species, its annual population dynamics, the success of vector control measures and future expansions due to climate change still remain poorly understood. While numerous studies on occurrence have been conducted, they used mainly presence data from relatively few locations. In contrast, we used experimental life history data to model the dynamics of a continuous stage-structured population to infer potential seasonal densities and ask whether stable populations are likely to establish over a period of more than one year. In addition, we used climate change models to infer future ranges. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of various stage-specific vector control measures.ResultsAedes j. japonicus has already established stable populations in the southwest and west of Germany. Our models predict a spread of Ae. j. japonicus beyond the currently observed range, but likely not much further eastwards under current climatic conditions. Climate change models, however, will expand this range substantially and higher annual densities can be expected. Applying vector control measures to oviposition, survival of eggs, larvae or adults showed that application of adulticides for 30 days between late spring and early autumn, while ambient temperatures are above 9 °C, can reduce population density by 75%. Continuous application of larvicide showed similar results in population reduction. Most importantly, we showed that with the consequent application of a mixed strategy, it should be possible to significantly reduce or even extinguish existing populations with reasonable effort.ConclusionOur study provides valuable insights into the mechanisms concerning the establishment of stable populations in invasive species. In order to minimise the hazard to public health, we recommend vector control measures to be applied in ‘high risk areas’ which are predicted to allow establishment of stable populations to establish.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3366-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genomic processes underlying rapid adaptation of a natural Chironomus riparius population to unintendedly applied experimental selection pressures

“…This temperature regime therefore served as control where we expected no or only little adaptive response. The intermediate temperature of 20°C is slightly above the average water temperature over the summer months at this population site, corresponding to a moderate climate change scenario (Wieser et al, ). The hottest exposure temperature of 26°C is not regularly experienced by this population and mimics a severe GCC scenario.…”

First report of the influence of temperature on the bionomics and population dynamics of Aedes koreicus, a new invasive alien species in Europe

“…aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) [21,22] and more recently also for Ae. japonicus japonicus (Theobald, 1901) [23]. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model the population dynamics of Ae.…”

Can data from native mosquitoes support determining invasive species habitats? Modelling the climatic niche of Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera, Culicidae) in Germany

“…The result is mapped to the climate of the period 1950-2000 and differs only slightly from ours. A completely different approach (ii) was carried out by Wieser et al (2019). Using experimental life history data obtained from Ae.…”

“…j. japonicus from the climatic niches of native species. Thus, contrary to modelling approaches relying on occurrence data outside the model region, as well as to a modelling approach based on life history data obtained from laboratory analyses (Wieser et al 2019), we aim to determine the realised ecological niche (Jeschke and Strayer 2008). This was achieved by the application of a machine learning approach based on a support vector machine (Cortes and Vapnik 1995), presence data of Ae.…”