Modelling risks posed by wind turbines and power lines to soaring birds: the black stork (Ciconia nigra) in Italy as a case study

Smeraldo, Sonia; Bosso, Luciano; Fraissinet, Maurizio; Bordignon, Lucio; Brunelli, Massimo; Ancillotto, Leonardo; Russo, Danilo

doi:10.1007/s10531-020-01961-3

Cited by 71 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…We then reclassified each replicate into binary (presence/absence) maps to evaluate suitability using the Maximum Training Sensitivity Plus Specificity threshold, which minimizes falsepresence and false-absence errors 16,47,48 , and stacked them to produce a single map. We classified suitable area into five categories as low (1-2 overlapping replicates), low-mid (3-4), mid (5-6), mid-high (7)(8), and high (9-10), with the sum equaling total suitable area predicted. We clipped the covered area that fell inside the main protected areas distributed across the Honduran Caribbean coast near collecting localities, and also estimated the suitable area inside these protected areas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

McMahan

Fuentes-Montejo

Ginger³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Despite their incredible diversity, relatively little work has been done to assess impacts of climate change on tropical freshwater organisms. Chortiheros wesseli is a species of neotropical cichlid (cichlidae: cichlinae) restricted to only a few river drainages in the caribbean-slope of Honduras. Little is known about this species and few specimens had been collected until recently; however, our work with this species in the wild has led to a better understanding of its ecology and habitat preferences making it an excellent model for how freshwater fishes can be affected by climate change. This study assesses the distribution and habitats of Chortiheros wesseli using a combination of field data and species distribution modeling. Results indicate this species is largely limited to its current range, with no realistic suitable habitat nearby. empirical habitat data show that this species is limited to narrow and shallow flowing waters with rapids and boulders. This habitat type is highly influenced by precipitation, which contributed the greatest influence on the models of present and future habitat suitability. Although several localities are within boundaries of national protected areas, species distribution models all predict a reduction in the range of this freshwater fish based on climate change scenarios. The likelihood of a reduced range for this species will be intensified by adverse changes to its preferred habitats. Current and projected impacts of climate change on fishes have been described in numerous studies and thoroughly synthesized by Myers et al. 1. Those authors demonstrate that many of the studies on freshwater fishes (few relative to marine studies) have focused on species of economic concern (e.g. salmon) and have largely targeted North America and Europe 1. This leaves vast geographic and taxonomic voids in our understanding of ongoing and future climate change impacts on freshwater biota, particularly in mega-diverse tropical systems 1. Evidence suggests tropical organisms may be as, or more, vulnerable to climate change impacts as temperate biota 2,3. The distributions of organisms depend on a variety of interacting abiotic and biotic variables (e.g. evolution, physiography, climate, habitat, competition 4,5) and provide key baseline data for documenting effects of climate change. However, combinations of those variables driving distributional patterns are far less well understood, particularly for aquatic taxa. Empirical studies (combining in situ examination of wild animals and modeling) assessing these variables are important sources of information for testing a range of hypotheses, as well as for

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

McMahan

Fuentes-Montejo

Ginger³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Models with the ability to predict the suitability of wildlife habitats on a large scale can be useful for wildlife managers [22,23]. For the protection of an important species, it is of critical importance to identify its needs as well as habitat constraints, and degradation factors [24,25]. Such models by identifying these factors can help managers spend less time and money in the management of wildlife habitats [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Morovati¹,

Karami

Amjas³

2020

PLoS ONE

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Climate change, as an emerging phenomenon, has led to changes in the distribution, movement, and even risk of extinction of various wildlife species and this has raised concerns among conservation biologists. Different species have two options in the face of climate change, either to adopt or follow their climatic niche to new places through the connectivity of habitats. The modeling of interpatch landscape communications can serve as an effective decision support tool for wildlife managers. This study was conducted to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat connectivity of the endangered subspecies of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) in the southern and southeastern Iran. The presence points of the species were collected in Provinces of Kerman, Hormozgan, and Sistan-Baluchestan. Habitat modeling was done by the Generalized Linear Model, and 3 machine learning models including Maximum Entropy, Back Propagation based artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. In order to achieve the ensemble model, the results of the mentioned models were merged based on the method of “accuracy rate as weight” derived from their validation. To construct pseudo-absence points for the use in the mentioned models, the Ensemble model of presence-only models was used. The modeling was performed using 15 habitat variables related to climatic, vegetation, topographic, and anthropogenic parameters. The three general circulation models of BCC-CSM1, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3 were selected under the two scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2070. To investigate the effect of climate change on the habitat connections, the protected areas of 3 provinces were considered as focal nodes and the connections between them were established based on electrical circuit theory and Pairwise method. The true skill statistic was employed to convert the continuous suitability layers to binary suitable/unsuitable range maps to assess the effectiveness of the protected areas in the coverage of suitable habitats for the species. Due to the high power of the stochastic forest model in determining the importance of variables, this method was used. The results showed that presence/absence models were successful in the implementation and well distinguished the points of presence and pseudo-absence from each other. Based on the random forests model, the variables of Precipitation of Driest Quarter, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Temperature Annual Range have the greatest impact on the habitat suitability. Comparing the modeling findings to the realities of the species distribution range indicated that the suitable habitats are located in areas with high humidity and rainfall, which are mostly in the northern areas of Bandar Abbas, south of Kerman, and west and south of Sistan-Baluchestan. The area of suitable habitats, in the MRI-CGCM3 (189731 Km2) and CCSM4 (179007 Km2) models under the RCP2.6 scenario, is larger than the current distribution (174001 Km2). However, in terms of the performance of protected areas, the optimal coverage of the species by the boundary of the protected areas, under each of the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, is less than the present time. According to the electric circuit theory, connecting the populations in the protected areas of Sistan-Baluchestan province to those in the northern Hormozgan and the southern Kerman would be based on the crossing through the heights of Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan provinces and the plains between these heights would be the movement pinch points under the current and future scenarios. Populations in the protected areas of Kerman have higher quality patch connections than that of the other two provinces. The areas such as Sang-e_Mes, Kouh_Shir, Zaryab, and Bahr_Aseman in Kerman Province and Kouhbaz and Geno in Hormozgan Province can provide suitable habitats for the species in the distribution models. The findings revealed that the conservation of the heights along with the caves inside them could be a protective priority to counteract the effects of climate change on the species.

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“…Production space is a fundamental driving force which provides economic support for living and ecological spaces. Efficient use of production space optimizes industrial structure, promotes social and economic development and ultimately facilitates quality of life and the maintenance of ecological space for humans as well as for other organisms [8][9][10]. The ultimate goal of coordinated and optimized development of EPLSs is to maintain the well-being of residents, and the realization of this goal is mainly reflected in living space.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidimensional Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variations in Ecological, Production and Living Spaces of Inner Mongolia and an Identification of Driving Forces

et al. 2020

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There is increasing focus on the difficult challenge of realizing coordinated development of production, living and ecological spaces within the regional development process. An ecological–production–living space evaluation index system was established in this study based on the concept of ecological, production and living spaces (EPLSs), the relationship between land use function and land use type and the national standard of land use classification. The aim of this study was to reveal the driving forces and patterns of variation in EPLSs in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2015. The results indicated that Inner Mongolia is mainly dominated by ecological space, followed by production space. Production and living spaces are mainly distributed to the south of the Greater Hinggan–Yinshan–Helan mountain ranges. Spatial changes in EPLSs were accelerated with prominent regional differences, with declining ecological area and increasing living and production spaces. Regional urbanization and industrialization were identified as the driving forces for change in EPLS in Inner Mongolia. It is hoped that the findings of this study can provide rational guidance for management of land use and coordinated development of EPLSs within Inner Mongolia.

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Modelling risks posed by wind turbines and power lines to soaring birds: the black stork (Ciconia nigra) in Italy as a case study

Cited by 71 publications

References 93 publications

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Multidimensional Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variations in Ecological, Production and Living Spaces of Inner Mongolia and an Identification of Driving Forces

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