Modelling in Ecomomic Evaluation: An Unavoidable Fact of Life

Abstract

SUMMARYThe role of modelling in economic evaluation is explored by discussing, with examples, the uses of models. The expanded use of pragmatic clinical trials as an alternative to models is discussed. Some suggestions for good modelling practice are made. ©

Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

“…However, this may require information to be gathered from outside the traditional evidence base of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). 316 For example, trial evidence may not examine all the relevant comparators or it may have a short study period which does not examine long-term costs or effects. Models have been exploited in economic evaluation as a means to synthesise the relevant sources of information that are available, extrapolate results into the future and provide estimates of costs and effects in the absence of direct observation.…”

Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

“…However, this may require information to be gathered from outside the traditional evidence base of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). 316 For example, trial evidence may not examine all the relevant comparators or it may have a short study period which does not examine long-term costs or effects. Models have been exploited in economic evaluation as a means to synthesise the relevant sources of information that are available, extrapolate results into the future and provide estimates of costs and effects in the absence of direct observation.…”

Development and validation of the Evaluation Platform In COPD (EPIC): a population-based outcomes model of COPD for Canada

“…Predicting the future using the best available evidence is a cornerstone of many disciplines. In healthcare, the use of modeling to reconcile evidence from multiple sources to project the outcomes of decisions is considered “an unavoidable fact of life”(11). Model-based projections can critically inform recommendations for best practices as well as policies.…”

Are brief interventions to increase physical activity cost-effective? A systematic review

“…These provide a source of evidence on resource use and health effects from well-designed studies with high internal validity. However, they are often constrained in terms of the range of outcome data collected or the length of follow-up, introducing difficulties in extrapolating the intervention effectiveness beyond the trial period 67. For example, the assumptions around the maintenance of physical activity levels beyond brief interventions determine how cost-effective the intervention is.…”

Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

“…However, this may require information to be gathered from outside the traditional evidence base of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). 316 For example, trial evidence may not examine all the relevant comparators or it may have a short study period which does not examine long-term costs or effects. Models have been exploited in economic evaluation as a means to synthesise the relevant sources of information that are available, extrapolate results into the future and provide estimates of costs and effects in the absence of direct observation.…”

Development and validation of the Evaluation Platform In COPD (EPIC): a population-based outcomes model of COPD for Canada

“…Predicting the future using the best available evidence is a cornerstone of many disciplines. In healthcare, the use of modeling to reconcile evidence from multiple sources to project the outcomes of decisions is considered “an unavoidable fact of life”(11). Model-based projections can critically inform recommendations for best practices as well as policies.…”

Are brief interventions to increase physical activity cost-effective? A systematic review

“…These provide a source of evidence on resource use and health effects from well-designed studies with high internal validity. However, they are often constrained in terms of the range of outcome data collected or the length of follow-up, introducing difficulties in extrapolating the intervention effectiveness beyond the trial period 67. For example, the assumptions around the maintenance of physical activity levels beyond brief interventions determine how cost-effective the intervention is.…”

Improvement in risk prediction, early detection and prevention of breast cancer in the NHS Breast Screening Programme and family history clinics: a dual cohort study

“…However, this may require information to be gathered from outside the traditional evidence base of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). 316 For example, trial evidence may not examine all the relevant comparators or it may have a short study period which does not examine long-term costs or effects. Models have been exploited in economic evaluation as a means to synthesise the relevant sources of information that are available, extrapolate results into the future and provide estimates of costs and effects in the absence of direct observation.…”

Development and validation of the Evaluation Platform In COPD (EPIC): a population-based outcomes model of COPD for Canada

“…Predicting the future using the best available evidence is a cornerstone of many disciplines. In healthcare, the use of modeling to reconcile evidence from multiple sources to project the outcomes of decisions is considered “an unavoidable fact of life”(11). Model-based projections can critically inform recommendations for best practices as well as policies.…”

Are brief interventions to increase physical activity cost-effective? A systematic review

“…These provide a source of evidence on resource use and health effects from well-designed studies with high internal validity. However, they are often constrained in terms of the range of outcome data collected or the length of follow-up, introducing difficulties in extrapolating the intervention effectiveness beyond the trial period 67. For example, the assumptions around the maintenance of physical activity levels beyond brief interventions determine how cost-effective the intervention is.…”