Modelling bus delay at bus stop

Abstract

Abstract.A bus may be blocked from entering and exiting a stop by other buses and traffic lights. The objective of this paper is to model each type of delay under these phenomena and the overall delay a bus experiences at a stop. Occupy-based delay, transfer block-based delay and block-based delay are defined and modelled. Bus delay at stop is just the sum of these three types of delay. Bus arrival rate, bus service rate, berth number and traffic lights are taken into consideration when modelling delay. Occupy-based delay is modelled with mean waiting time in Queueing theory. Transfer block-based delay and block-based delay are modelled based on standard deviation of waiting time and the probabilities of their occurrences. Two stops in Vancouver, Canada are selected for parameter estimation and model validation. The unknown parameter is estimated as 0.4230 using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), which indicates that 42.3% of waiting time variation can be attributed to buses being blocked by the buses in front and red light for the selected stops. Model validation shows the average accuracy rate of the proposed model is 75.07% for the selected stops. Bus delay at stop evidently increases when arrival rate is more than 85 buses per hour for the given service time (50 s), ratio of red time to cycle length (0.65) and berth number (2). We also figure out that bus delay at stop evidently increases when service time is more than 60 s for the given arrival rate (54 buses per hour), ratio of red time to cycle length (0.65) and berth number (2). The proposed model can provide a tool for bus stop design and offer the foundation for service quality evaluation of transit.

Estimation of Transport Accessibility in Case of Rational Transport Hub Location

“…x is the stochastic component reflecting possible time schedule deviation [min]. The density of the public transport stops r s influences on transport accessibility through time indices, which reflect two types of time formation: transportation process execution on the route (Comi et al 2017) and vehicles dwell time at the public transport stops (Huo et al 2018): The travel time realization d v and the total dwell time of the route vehicle d p are calculated by widely-known and well-formalized formulas. As for passenger walk time to reach the nearest public transport stop d l it has been proposed to define this value according the following (Figure 1):…”

Justification of the criteria for allocation of separate lanes for urban public transport

“…In the article [17], such situations during the simulation the delay on UPT stops before controlled intersections:…”

“…1. Change of bus delay in the UPT stop zone depending on their arrival rate and passenger service time [17] This theoretical analysis allows defining the main factors that determine the effectiveness of transport service on the sections of city arterial streets where UPT moves, expressed by traffic delay. These factors are: traffic flow intensity, UPT intensity, and intensity of pedestrian flow at uncontrolled pedestrian crosswalks, duration of service on UPT stops, the distance between intersections or pedestrian crosswalks, and the number of lanes in one direction.…”

Discrete Event Simulation of Bus Terminals

“…A bus stop can be considered a queuing system where buses arrive with a particular probability distribution, wait on entering the stop if it is occupied before dwelling and leaving, possibly with a probability of needing to wait on blocking traffic or a downstream traffic light. Huo et al (2018), for instance, use queuing theory to estimate bus delay at a multiple berth bus stop. For more complex systems with many stops, vehicle interactions and rules governing when and how buses can enter and leave stops, queuing theory is more difficult to use, however.…”