Modelling and Tools Supporting the Transition to a Bioeconomy

Abstract

The strategy of using biogenic resources in a bioeconomy could be seen as one answer to the geopolitical challenges the world is facing in the twenty-first century. One of those challenges is the closing of the prosperity gap between rich and poor countries. However, considering the current global population growth and anthropogenically induced climate change, it is expected that efforts to achieve this goal will be accompanied by an increasing demand for food, feed, products, and energy, which cannot be satisfied by the expected supply of non-biogenic raw materials and resources.Transforming an economy is extremely complex: domestic and international obligations, traditional practices, and divergent interests and wishes need to be taken into consideration. This requires the development of an appropriate strategy and adequate instruments and tools to support it.This chapter discusses a range of possible knowledge-based instruments and tools that take a systemic view of the challenges in such transformation processes. Keywords Scenarios • Scenario building • Economic models • Ecological and biophysical models • Life cycle assessment • Integrated assessment models Learning ObjectivesAfter studying this chapter, you should:• Understand how transformation theory can support transition processes.• Have an overview of main instruments and tools to quantify and assess transition developments.• Be acquainted with the main challenges, strategies and drivers to facilitate the transition to a bioeconomy.

Economic Impacts and Land Use Change from Increasing Demand for Forest Products in the European Bioeconomy: A General Equilibrium Based Sensitivity Analysis

“…We motivate our modelling approach based on a brief overview of economic models used for bioeconomy assessments drawing on the classification used by Angenendt et al [28] and Wicke et al [29].…”

“…Economic models, traditionally used for economic and trade policy assessments, are increasingly extended and improved to address bioeconomy-relevant sustainability dimensions such as land use (LUC) and climate change, or biodiversity loss (Table 1). Angenendt et al [28] classify these models into two main groups: (1) Macroeconomic models, including CGE and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models and, (2) Economic Bottom-Up models (see Table 1). CGE models describe the whole economy and all linkages among its industries and economic agents through a system of mathematical equations.…”

“…Integrated modelling approach allows, by combining different methodological frameworks, to overcome certain shortcomings and to conduct comprehensive and interdisciplinary assessments with a very high level of detail. However, ensuring consistency of different modelling systems remains a challenging task [28]. Therefore, the choice of a certain method must arise from the scope and the objectives of the study.…”

Insights from the Sustainability Monitoring Tool SUMINISTRO Applied to a Case Study System of Prospective Wood-Based Industry Networks in Central Germany

“…In this sense, the presented sustainability monitoring tool is a contribution to the emerging field of LCM tools that provide decision support and strategy assessment of regional sustainability [20][21][22][23][24]. This study showcases the operationalization of an LCM tool in a case study system of future regional bioeconomy production networks.…”

Levelling the playing field for EU biomass usage

“…Depending on the nature and scale of the research question, economic modelling representations of biomass supply and demand markets typically range from bottoms up representations of specific biomass conversion technologies, to multisector biobased partial equilibrium models and even economy-wide approaches akin to the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach (Angenendt et al, 2018). Given the broad scope of this research, the tool of analysis employed here is a neoclassical multisectoral, multiregional CGE framework.…”