Modeling Wind‐Blown Umbrella Clouds in Lagrangian Dispersion Models

Abstract

The ash and gas released by large explosive volcanic eruptions rises to its neutral buoyancy level in the atmosphere, then spreads laterally to form an umbrella cloud. Density stratification of the atmosphere generates buoyancy forces in the cloud which drive the outward spread. Although umbrella clouds are often modelled as circular axisymmetric structures, in practice they are usually influenced quite strongly by the meteorological wind, with spread in the upwind direction halted by the oncoming wind, and different rates of spreading in the downwind and crosswind directions. In this work, we derive a simple parametrization of non‐axisymmetric umbrella cloud spreading from a much more complex physically‐based shallow‐layer intrusion model. The new parametrization is quick to evaluate and so is suitable for use in operational Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion Models. In contrast to previous parametrizations, in which there is assumed to be no interaction between a circular umbrella cloud and the meteorological wind, here the umbrella cloud is influenced by the wind and adopts a shape determined by the balance of buoyant spreading and downwind drag forces. We apply the new scheme to four historical case studies of eruptions at Puyehue 2011, Pinatubo 1991, Ulawun 2019 and Calbuco 2015. The results are compared with VATDM simulations using a conventional circular umbrella cloud parametrization. Using the new scheme, good descriptions of cloud spread are recovered and the prediction of horizontal ash distribution is improved relative to the axisymmetric parametrization.