Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China

Liu, Boyang; Gao, Xiang; Ma, Jingyun; Jiao, Zhen; Xiao, Jianhua; Hayat, M; Wang, Hongbin

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301

Cited by 103 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Studies have emphasized the connection between climate and dengue and predicted the potential for expansion of both the vectors and the arboviruses into regions at the margins of transmission that are currently deemed unsuitable for arbovirus transmission [10 ,58,59 ,60]. Region-specific studies have predicted the potential for greater suitability for arbovirus transmission in some major U.S. cities [61 ], rural and southern regions of Brazil [62], and central and western regions of China [63], among others.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Michael

Stewart-Ibarra

Estallo

2020

Current Opinion in Virology

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Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Có rdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Michael

Stewart-Ibarra

Estallo

2020

Current Opinion in Virology

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“…The most suitable habitats of Ae. aegypti include Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, the western and southern border areas of Yunnan, and parts of the southern Guizhou region 27 . Yet, due to climate changes and increased urbanization, a significant northward shift occurred in the northern Chinese region over recent years 28 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic diversity and population structure of Aedes aegypti after massive vector control for dengue fever prevention in Yunnan border areas

Zhu

Wang

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the dengue virus. Aedes aegypti ( Ae. Aegypti ) is considered the primary vector of Dengue virus transmission in Yunnan Province, China. With increased urbanization, Ae. aegypti populations have significantly increased over the last 20 years. Despite all the efforts that were made for controlling the virus transmission, especially on border areas between Yunnan and Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar (dengue-endemic areas), the epidemic has not yet been eradicated. Thus, further understanding of the genetic diversity, population structure, and invasive strategies of Ae. aegypti populations in the border areas was vital to uncover the vector invasion and distribution dynamic, and essential for controlling the infection. In this study, we analyzed genetic diversity and population structure of eight adult Ae. Aegypti populations collected along the border areas of Yunnan Province in 2017 and 2018. Nine nuclear microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences were used to achieve a better understanding of the genetic diversity and population structure. One hundred and fourteen alleles were found in total. The polymorphic information content value, together with the expected heterozygosity (He) and observed heterozygosity (Ho) values showed high genetic diversity in all mosquito populations. The clustering analysis based on Bayesian algorithm, the UPGMA and DAPC analysis revealed that all the eight Ae. aegypti populations can be divided into three genetic groups. Based on the mtDNA results, all Ae. aegypti individuals were divided into 11 haplotypes. The Ae. aegypti populations in the border areas of Yunnan Province presented with high genetic diversity, which might be ascribed to the continuous incursion of Ae. aegypti .

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“…Risk assessments of vector‐borne diseases by modelling the distribution of vectors have been highlighted in many previous studies, such as the modelling of Lutzomyia for leishmaniasis, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus for Japanese encephalitis, and Aedes aegypti / Aedes albopictus for dengue . Predicting the potential distribution of disease vectors is helpful to carry out more targeted and efficient vector monitoring and pathogen detection work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach

Liu

Gao

Zheng

et al. 2020

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUNDIntense studies have been carried out on the effects of climate change on vector‐borne diseases and vectors. Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus are two medically concerned mosquito species in temperate and tropical areas, which serve as important disease‐transmitting pests of a variety of diseases. The ongoing geographical expansion of these mosquitoes has brought an increasing threat to public health.RESULTSBased on mosquito occurrence records and high‐resolution environmental layers, an ecological niche model was established to model their current and future potential distribution in China. Our model showed that the current suitable area for Cx. p. pallens is distributed in the central, eastern and northern parts of China, while Cx. p. quinquefasciatus is distributed in vast areas in southern China. Under future climate change scenarios, both species are predicted to expand their range to varying degrees and RCP 8.5 provides the largest expansion. Northward core shifts will occur in ranges of both species. Environmental variables which have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes were also revealed by our model.CONCLUSIONSevere habitat expansion of vectors is likely to occur in the future 21st century. Our models mapped the high‐risk areas and risk factors which needs to be paid attention. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological surveys and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of vector‐borne diseases. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry

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Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China

Cited by 103 publications

References 61 publications

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Genetic diversity and population structure of Aedes aegypti after massive vector control for dengue fever prevention in Yunnan border areas

The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach

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