Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand

Abstract

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Consumer and Market Responses to Mad Cow Disease

“…For instance, find that the continued BSE scare in the United Kingdom has resulted in a long-term reduction of the beef market share by 4.5%, yet it is unclear how much of this shift is attributable to longrun trends. Moschini and Meilke (1989) argue that in the United States there has been a shift away from beef to fish and chicken. In order to pick up location-specific shifts in consumption patterns, we include store-by-product-by-year fixed effects in our approach.…”

“…5 The fixed effects ␣ ast allow for a shift of average purchases in each store s by aggregation level a and winter t as others have argued before that there are long-term shifts (Moschini and Meilke 1989). The coefficient ␤ n picks up the seasonal effect of period n, for example, ham and turkey sales might always be higher around Christmas.…”

Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: An Application to Meat Demand

“…Examples pertaining especially to meat demand in the U.S. and elsewhere include Chavas (1983), Dahlgran (1987), Eales and Unnevehr (1988) Moschini and Mielke (1989), Alston and Chal-fant (1991), and more recently, Davis (1997) and Bryant and Davis (2008). Work in a similar spirit has been done in the context of the demand for fats and oils by Goodwin et al (2003) and in factor demand equations for U.S. food and kindred products manufacturing sector by Goodwin and Brester (1995).…”

“…In several instances the possibility of a smooth structural change over time is allowed. See, for example, Moschini and Mielke (1989). But to the best of our knowledge missing from the extant literature is a model that permits the possibility that (1) structural change is smooth over time and (2) that it is potentially non-monotonic.…”

Procurement Risk Management in Beef Supply Chains

“…These effects are slower but have substantial impacts on markets over time. The increase in productivity has 4 See, for example, Braschler (1983), Chavas (1983), Dahlgran (1987), Moschini and Meilke (1989), Verbeke and Ward (2001) and Boetel and Liu (2003). 5 Initial supply modeling work includes Reutlinger (1966) and Nelson and Spreen (1974), and the later work by Marsh (1983Marsh ( , 1984Marsh ( , and 1994.…”