Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania

Cuddington, John T.

doi:10.1093/wber/7.2.173

Cited by 148 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 5 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Similarly, Cuddington and Hancock (1994) suggest that between 1985 and 2010 Malawi could experience average real GDP growth up to 1.5 percentage points lower, while Cuddington (1993) estimates that in Tanzania per capita GDP could be up to 10% smaller.…”

Section: Hiv/aids and Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

McDonald

Roberts

2006

Journal of Development Economics

100

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It is estimated that by 2001 20 million people had died from AIDS, which is now the world's fourth biggest cause of death. While the highest prevalence and death rates and number of infected persons are reported for sub-Saharan Africa, where life expectancies at birth are declining rapidly and infant mortality rates are increasing, there is evidence that the epidemic is accelerating in Asia and Eastern Europe. While the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are the major causes for concern, the econometric results reported in this paper indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic have been substantial; especially in Africa where the average marginal negative impact on income per capita of a one percent increase in HIV prevalence rate is 0.59 percent. Even in countries where the HIV prevalence rates are lower the marginal impacts are non trivial.

show abstract

Section: Hiv/aids and Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

McDonald

Roberts

2006

Journal of Development Economics

100

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Unfortunately we do not know the timing of these funds so that we cannot examine the dynamic impacts of this external funding. 16 For this analysis we take such funding to be exogenous.…”

Section: Income Expenditure and External Fundingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Negative Reality of the HIV Positives: Evaluating Welfare Loss in a Low Prevalence Country

2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using primary household data from India we estimate family utility function parameters that measure the relative importance of consumption, schooling of children and health (both physical and mental) and find that mental health is far more important than consumption or children's schooling in determining household utility. We then estimate that the monetary equivalent of the welfare loss to an HIV family is Rs. 66,039 per month, whereas the losses to an HIV male and female are Rs. 67,601 and Rs. 65,120 per month respectively. These figures are huge given that the average per capita consumption expenditure of the families in our sample is just Rs.

show abstract

“…In this context, HIV/AIDS is increasingly portrayed as transcending personal and social boundaries to constitute a threat to economic growth and welfare (Ministry of Health, 2001;UNAIDS and WHO, 2000a). In other parts of the world, where the epidemic hits hardest, its accumulated impact has been estimated as a dismal reduction of 25 percent of GDP (Cuddington, 1993a) and reductions in the annual growth rate of GDP of half a percentage point (Ainsworth and Over, 1994). In the Middle East and North Africa, more recent estimates by Jenkins and Robalino (2003) report dents in the annual growth rates between 0.2 and 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Next, the growth model of Cuddington (1993a) is extended to link annual variation rates of HIV/AIDS with annual economic growth rates. This methodology differs from previous studies in that it analyzes year-by-year impacts 3 along a more realistic epidemic-ridden counterfactual instead of a no-AIDS equilibrium scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does a Mature Aids Epidemic Threaten Growth?

Cuesta

2008

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, InterAmerican Development Bank. Terms of use: Documents inThe Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues. To obtain a complete list of RES publications, and read or download them please visit our web site at: http://www.iadb.org/res.3 AbstractThis paper models the impact on economic growth of HIV/AIDS when the epidemic is in a mature phase, in contrast with previous studies focused on periods of expansion, as in African countries. Simulations for Honduras, the epicenter of the epidemic in Central America, show that AIDS is not likely to threaten economic growth through either labor or capital accumulation channels; impacts are estimated between 0.007 and 0.27 percent points of GDP growth annually for the period 2001-10. Likewise, increasing spending on prevention, public treatment subsidies and treatment access will not jeopardize economic growth prospects. Critical factors that slash economic growth in Africa (such as human capital reductions and shifts in relative skills) are not strong in Honduras.

show abstract

Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania

Cited by 148 publications

References 5 publications

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

Negative Reality of the HIV Positives: Evaluating Welfare Loss in a Low Prevalence Country

Does a Mature Aids Epidemic Threaten Growth?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About