Modeling The Fate of Sumatran Elephants in Bukit Tigapuluh Indonesia: Research Needs &amp; Implications for Population Management

Moßbrucker, Alexander Markus; Imron, Muhammad; Pudyatmoko, Satyawan; Pratje, Peter-Hinrich; Sumardi, Sumardi

doi:10.22146/jik.12622

Cited by 11 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Populations cannot withstand even modest increases in mortality across age classes, especially of females and calves, which typically have not been a focus of conservation attention (Tables 3, 5). Elephants in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable due to their remoteness, fragmentation, and small sizes (Leimgruber et al, 2003;Gopala et al, 2011;Moßbrucker et al, 2015;Moßbrucker, 2016). Several subpopulations within China, Laos and Vietnam were estimated to number fewer than 20 individuals over a decade ago (Hedges et al, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Tipping Points as Early Indicators of Vulnerability for Slow-Breeding Megafaunal Populations

Silva

Leimgruber

2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Decisions based on trends in population abundance and distribution may fail to protect populations of slow-breeding, long-lived megafauna from irrevocable decline if they ignore demographic constraints. For such taxa, we urge that effort be directed at understanding the interactions among vital rates governing population growth rates, rather than on predicting probabilities of extinction. The proximity of a population to demographic tipping points, i.e., where growth rate switches from positive to negative, can signal vulnerability to perturbation long before numbers drop below a point of no return. We define the "demographic safe space" as the combination of key vital rates that support a non-negative growth rate and illustrate this approach for Asian elephants. Through simulations, we find that even with optimal reproduction, Asian elephant populations cannot tolerate annual female mortality rates exceeding 7.5%. If adult mortality is very low (3%/year), populations can tolerate high annual mortality in calves below age 3 (up to 31.5%/year), or slow female reproduction (primiparity at 30 years or average inter-birth interval of up to 7.68 years). We then evaluate the potential impact of current threats, showing that near-optimal reproduction and high calf survival is necessary to offset even modestly increased mortality among adult female age classes. We suggest that rather than rely on simple counts or "viability" assessments, conservation planners for slow-breeding megafauna should consider demographic tipping points and strive to keep populations within their safe spaces.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Tipping Points as Early Indicators of Vulnerability for Slow-Breeding Megafaunal Populations

Silva

Leimgruber

2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…1). The borders of these survey areas were determined based on elephant distribution data collected between 2005 and 2011 ([25,26], Frankfurt Zoological Society, unpublished survey & patrol data 2005–2011) and a three-month pre-survey of all potential elephant habitat not recently surveyed.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Invasive Genotyping of Sumatran Elephants: Implications for Conservation

Moßbrucker

Apriyana

Fickel

et al. 2015

Tropical Conservation Science

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Reliable baseline information necessary for the monitoring and conservation of Sumatran elephants is scarce. We here combine non-invasive molecular genetics methods and capture-recapture modeling to estimate elephant population size, distribution, sex ratio, and age structure for the Bukit Tigapuluh landscape in Sumatra, Indonesia. Two separate subpopulations were found, for which we estimated a population size of 99 (95% CI = [86, 125], PCCL = 38.59%) and 44 elephants (95% CI = [37, 56], PCCL = 43.18%), respectively. Low elephant densities are likely the result of patchy habitat usage and anthropogenically increased mortality, the latter assumption being supported by strong skews in both sex ratio and age structure as well as direct evidence of elephant killing. Still, the Bukit Tigapuluh landscape currently holds the largest known population of elephants in central Sumatra, representing one of the most important areas for their conservation in Indonesia. Conservation of both the elephant population and their habitat in this region should thus be of high priority. We identified several threats to the population, including (i) the risk of inbreeding and subsequent loss of genetic diversity, (ii) illegal elephant killing, and (iii) the lack of protected habitat. In order to overcome these challenges we suggest: (i) the implementation of a meta-population management program, (ii) monitoring and safeguarding elephants and improving law enforcement, and (iii) providing sufficient safe habitat to mitigate human-elephant-conflict (HEC) and ensure elephant survival.

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“…Hal ini dimungkinkan karena adanya pembukaan lahan yang menyebabkan gajah berpindah ke lokasi lain . Menurut Moβbrucker et al (2016) ketahanan hidup gajah akan terancam karena gangguan habitat dan perburuan liar. Sunarto (2013) menyebutkan bahwa kurang dari satu dekade terakhir ada sekitar 129 individu gajah yang dibunuh di Sumatera, terutama di Provinsi Riau (59% diracun, 13% diduga konflik dengan warga, dan 5% lainnya dibunuh dengan menggunakan senjata api untuk memperoleh gading).…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

POTENSI VEGETASI DAN DAYA DUKUNG UNTUK HABITAT GAJAH SUMATERA (Elephas maximus sumatranus) DI AREAL PERKEBUNAN SAWIT DAN HUTAN PRODUKSI KECAMATAN SUNGAI MENANG, KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ILIR

Setiasih¹,

Rianti²,

Takandjandji³

2018

BERITABIOLOGI

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Forest land converted into palm oil plantations have caused habitat fragmentation of elephant and land degradation. These lead to land use conflict between human and elephant. The conflict often caused the elephant killed and destructed agricultural land. The study was aimed to estimate potential use and carrying capacity of elephant habitat. Data collection of undergrowth vegetation were analyzed using twelve square plots of 1 x 1m, the distance between the plot of 50 m, tree vegetation of seedlings size 1 x 1 m, saplings 5 x 5 m, and trees 20 x 20 m, the distance between the plot of 200 m and of 1000 m lenght. Vegetation used as elephants feed were observed using purposive sampling and systematically procedure. The analysis showed that biomass of plants producing elephant fodder in Tambang Besi were of Cyperus rotundus (3600.26 kg/ha), Cynodon dactylon (346.74 kg/ha), Melaleuca leucadendron (255.21 kg/ha), and Melastoma malabatricum (156.40 kg/ha). While, the highest biomass in Tebing Penigasan plot is Cyperus rotundus (3575 kg/ha), and in Barak Gajah Plot is Isachne globusa (4013.33 kg/ha). The carrying capacity of elephants habitat of Tambang Besi, Tebing Penigasan, and Barak Gajah plots are 0.78, 0.29, and 0.41 individual/ha/day, respectively.

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Modeling The Fate of Sumatran Elephants in Bukit Tigapuluh Indonesia: Research Needs & Implications for Population Management

Abstract: ABSTRACT

Cited by 11 publications

References 26 publications

Demographic Tipping Points as Early Indicators of Vulnerability for Slow-Breeding Megafaunal Populations

Demographic Tipping Points as Early Indicators of Vulnerability for Slow-Breeding Megafaunal Populations

Non-Invasive Genotyping of Sumatran Elephants: Implications for Conservation

POTENSI VEGETASI DAN DAYA DUKUNG UNTUK HABITAT GAJAH SUMATERA (Elephas maximus sumatranus) DI AREAL PERKEBUNAN SAWIT DAN HUTAN PRODUKSI KECAMATAN SUNGAI MENANG, KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ILIR

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