Modeling Species and Community Responses to Past, Present, and Future Episodes of Climatic and Ecological Change

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Nieto‐Lugilde, Diego; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.; Blois, Jessica L.

doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054441

Cited by 133 publications

(150 citation statements)

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“…The palaeontological record, in general, and the fossil-pollen record of the Late Quaternary, in particular, provides a unique opportunity to test and compare ecological forecasting models across periods of climatic and biotic change [8,27]. We tested the ability of five SDM algorithms and their direct CLM counterparts to predict observed changes in fossil-pollen distributions and assemblages through time and test whether simultaneously modelling co-occurring taxa in a region increased model performance compared with SDMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

et al. 2016

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Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossilpollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

et al. 2016

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“…Only a few studies using climate niche modeling approaches have attempted to integrate the role of disturbance, dispersal, or competition (Tucker et al 2012;Crimmins et al 2014, Maguire et al 2015, in part due to complexities involved in integrating complex processes into non-process-based models. These additional dynamics have been more commonly simulated under climate change using FLSMs (e.g., Yang et al 2015) and dynamic global vegetation models (e.g., Conlisk et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Campbell

Shinneman

2017

Ecol Process

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Introduction: Climate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes). Methods: Distributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios. Results: Three species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine.

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“…The latter is most frequently adopted as the gap in physiological tolerances is higher than the gap in geographic distribution knowledge (Hortal et al 2015). Efficient correlative ecological niche models implement complex algorithms that correlate occurrence records with environmental conditions to predict current, future, or past suitable conditions for species (Elith & Leathwick 2009, Maguire et al 2015. While these complex algorithms generally have a better predictive power than simple methods, they require a minimum number of occurrence records to efficiently estimate the species niche and subsequently test its performance (Stockwell & Peterson 2002, Peterson et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on Small-Ranged Amphibians of the Northern Atlantic Forest

2018

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Climate change is shifting species distribution all around the world. Amphibians are particularly vulnerable to these environmental changes, as they are highly sensitive to fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. While previous studies have shown that climate change may increase amphibian species extinctions worldwide, few have tested how these changes may impact small-ranged species. Here, we use simple Euclidean distance methods to evaluate how changes in climatic conditions predicted for 2050 and 2070 may impact ten small-ranged amphibians of Northern Atlantic Forest in Brazil. Specifically, we focused on changes in temperature and precipitation regimes during the breeding season of all target species. Our results indicate that future climatic conditions will be less favorable for the evaluated species. Environmental conditions similar to the ones currently experienced by the species may shift to southwestern regions. Likewise, we expect favorable climatic conditions to move in altitude, but without a common trend among species. In spite of these impacts, the most favorable climatic conditions for each species will keep the same connectivity patterns as observed in the present. Taken together, these findings suggest that small-ranged amphibians of the Northern Atlantic Forest will be negatively affected by climate change, mainly by the reduction and shifts of suitable climatic conditions. Finally, our results also indicate that actions to decrease greenhouse gas emissions would reduce the impact on these small-ranged species.

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Modeling Species and Community Responses to Past, Present, and Future Episodes of Climatic and Ecological Change

Cited by 133 publications

References 131 publications

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Impacts of Climate Change on Small-Ranged Amphibians of the Northern Atlantic Forest

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