Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation

Larsson, Aron; Ibrahim, Osama

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-22500-5_11

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Elicitation of preferences in policymaking requires that there exists a basis for decision, typically in the form of more or less objective so-called impact assessment reports describing the impact of different alternatives on objectives but strive to be neutral with respect to decision maker preferences. The impact assessment approaches can be more or less formalized, and examples used together with decision analysis approaches within the context of policymaking published in the literature include, for example, life-cycle assessment (Miettinen & Hämäläinen, 1997), quality-adjusted life years (Drake, Kulkarni, & Kestle, 2009, Kivunike, Ekenberg, Danielson, & Tusubira, 2014, life microlevel simulation and system dynamics (Gou et al, 2001;Hansson, Danielson, & Ekenberg, 2008), scenario planning (Montibeller, Gummer, & Tumidei, 2006), and causal map problem structuring methods (Comes, Hiete, Wijngaards, & Schultmann, 2011;Larsson & Ibrahim, 2015) modelling cause-effect relationships.…”

Section: Impact Assessment and Preferencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool

Larsson

Fasth

Wärnhjelm

et al. 2018

Multi Criteria Decision Anal

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This paper reports upon the deliverables and learnings from a project within decision analysis for participatory planning and policy analysis on the municipal level. The project aimed to develop and utilize an online multicriteria decision analysis tool for evaluations of policy alternatives with respect to municipal commercial development policies, acknowledging the objectives and preferences from various local and national stakeholders. The tool itself relied solely on that the users supplied cardinal ranking statements in the appraisal of alternatives and in the ranking of criteria and the surrounding method has been used in three cases. In each case, several significant insights obtained in the decision‐modelling workshops were emphasized by the participants. The better understanding of the general decision situation, preference structures, and possible strategies was highly appreciated. The perception was also that this enabled a better understanding of conflicting issues, even when these were not entirely resolved.

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Section: Impact Assessment and Preferencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool

Larsson

Fasth

Wärnhjelm

et al. 2018

Multi Criteria Decision Anal

Self Cite

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“…Four papers theoretically describe methods and techniques that can be used as building blocks of intent‐driven systems (level 3) [18, 19, 24, 25]. Baudry et al [18] suggest combining Monte Carlo simulation with multi‐actor multi‐criteria analysis, while Kishore et al [19] suggest integrating a MAS into a DSS.…”

Section: Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Baudry et al [18] suggest combining Monte Carlo simulation with multi‐actor multi‐criteria analysis, while Kishore et al [19] suggest integrating a MAS into a DSS. Larsson and Ibrahim [24] talk about policy formulation. At the same time, Wiesner et al [25] advocate using natural language processing for requirements engineering, which highlights the same problems that need to be solved for intent‐driven systems.…”

Section: Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Systematic literature review on intent‐driven systems

2020

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An intent-driven system is a compositional system of human actors and machine actors. The aim of intent-driven systems is to capture stakeholders' intents and transform these into a form that enables computer processing of the intents. Only then are different machine actors able to negotiate with each other on behalf of their respective stakeholders and their intents, and suggest a mutually beneficial collaboration. The aim is to find existing methods/techniques which could be used as building blocks to construct intent-driven systems. This is used to provide insight into what is needed to enable intent-driven systems with the help of these methods/techniques. As a part of a design science study, a Systematic Literature Review is conducted. The existences of methods/techniques which can be used as building blocks to construct intent-driven systems exist in the literature. How these methods/techniques can interact in order to enable realisations of intent-driven systems is not evident in the existing literature. The synthesis shows a need for further research regarding the semantic interchange of information, actor interaction in intent-driven systems, and the governance of intent-driven systems.

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Multi-stakeholder Preference Analysis in Ex-ante Evaluation of Policy Options - Use Case: Ultra Low Emission Vehicles in UK

Talantsev

Ibrahim

Larsson

2016

Electronic Participation

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Part 4: Policy Formulation and ModellingInternational audienceWhile the simulation-based impact assessment of public policy proposals allows policy makers to identify the feasible policy options and verify their economic, social and environmental impacts, it does not provide the explicit evaluation of policy options. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can support an in-depth performance evaluation of policy options taking into account the preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. These preferences reflect acceptable trade-offs of performance among objectives. This study reviews multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) technique and presents a common policy appraisal format using main evaluation criteria linked to a set of measurable, context dependent attributes. We argue for a rank-based approach for eliciting preferences, select a novel method for attribute weight elicitation, and show how it can be integrated within a public policy multi-criteria evaluation framework. A use case for policymaking, ‘Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles (ULEV) Uptake in UK’, is used for demonstration of the proposed approach for policy decision analysis. This approach seeks to couple systems modelling and simulation of policy scenarios with MCDA, stakeholder analysis and preference elicitation. The outputs can further provide analytical insights in controversy/acceptability of policy options, and consequently guide further policy formulation and the design of better options

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Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool

Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool

Systematic literature review on intent‐driven systems

Multi-stakeholder Preference Analysis in Ex-ante Evaluation of Policy Options - Use Case: Ultra Low Emission Vehicles in UK

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