Modeling and mapping dynamic vulnerability to better assess WUI evacuation performance

Abstract

Summary Wildland‐urban interface (WUI) fire incidents are likely to become more severe and will affect more and more people. Given their scale and complexity, WUI incidents require a multidomain approach to assess their impact and the effectiveness of any mitigation efforts. The authors recently produced a specification for a simulation framework that quantifies evacuation performance during WUI incidents including inputs from three core domains: fire development, pedestrian performance and vehicular traffic [26]. This framework could produce new insights by simulating evolving conditions of WUI incidents based on developments and interactions between the core components. Thus, it aims to overcome known limitations of previous approaches (eg, static assessment, single domain approaches, or lack of projection), as well as to provide explanatory insights into the outcomes produced by the simulation. The proposed framework would also advance geo‐spatial mapping of WUI incidents. The concept of dynamic vulnerability, 0.25emtrue0.25embold-italicv̇, is at the core of the framework and is enabled by the integrated simulation framework and the emergent conditions predicted. This allows users to construct richer incident narratives from the perspective of specific locations or subpopulations, and also makes fewer simplifying assumptions regarding interactions between the three core domains.

Roxborough Park Community Wildfire Evacuation Drill: Data Collection and Model Benchmarking

“…Previous attempts to map the areas vulnerable to wildfires may become outdated—given the evolving wildfire landscape and associated conditions—affecting community planning and resource allocation. Risk analysis entirely based on historical data is undermined given the speed at which the conditions are evolving leading to very different scenarios being faced [ 9 ]. Conclusions drawn from apparently similar previous fires are becoming less relevant—as the underlying factors diverge.…”

Fusing Social Media, Remote Sensing, and Fire Dynamics to Track Wildland-Urban Interface Fire

“…Such standardization will lead to the extension of analyses and their compatibility with other disasters [34,35]. In WUI fire areas, few studies have been performed on fusing geospatial and RS data [36][37][38], internet posts [39][40][41], and fire spread dynamics [42][43][44][45]. Such a fusion is necessary in order to acquire situational awareness and execute decision analysis more effectively and efficiently.…”