Migration under Climate Change in Southern Africa: A Nexus Planning Perspective

Abstract

Population increase is exacerbating resource insecurities due to increased demand for already depleted resources. Coupled with climate change, they are the main drivers of both intra- (rural-urban and urban-urban) and inter-migration (from one country to the other). We carried out a systematic review of literature, focusing on available options to ensure water and food security, as well as improve the socio-economic environment, highlighting the drivers of migration in southern Africa. The aim was to develop informed adaptation strategies and build resilience in the advent of accelerated migration. We developed a migration conceptual framework based on the nexus between water, food and socio-economic interlinkages. Urban areas in southern Africa are under immense pressure to accommodate climate refugees from resource stressed rural areas, a situation that is impacting on agricultural production. Most urban areas are exceeding their ecological thresholds to support the built environment, causing some socio-ecological challenges. Nexus planning can inform adaptation planning on permissible migration that are aligned with regional goals such as regional integration, poverty reduction and improved livelihoods. This would also contribute to the region’s achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, through the identification of synergies and trade-offs, nexus planning can inform regional adaptation strategies for positively managing migration leading to sustainable outcomes.

Social Work Interventions: A Socio-Ecological Analysis of Climate Change and Conflict Refugees in the Sahel

“…The threat of climate change is poised to disproportionately affect marginalized citizens in developing nations, especially those in the Sahel region in Africa (Mpandeli et al, 2020). Pressures from climate change are increasing conflict in the region, forcing residents to flee as forced migrants and refugees (Gaynor, 2020).…”

“…However, the increase in refugee camps and settlements as climate change worsens are likely to have a higher environmental impact moving forward (Gaynor, 2020). Large-scale human migration is putting more pressure on urban areas in Africa as they work to accommodate climate refugees from the more resource-stressed rural areas (Mpandeli et al, 2020). In turn, the urban areas are exceeding their "ecological thresholds" to support their current built environment, resulting in socio-ecological challenges (Mpandeli et al, 2020).…”

“…Large-scale human migration is putting more pressure on urban areas in Africa as they work to accommodate climate refugees from the more resource-stressed rural areas (Mpandeli et al, 2020). In turn, the urban areas are exceeding their "ecological thresholds" to support their current built environment, resulting in socio-ecological challenges (Mpandeli et al, 2020). The future displacement of large numbers of people due to climate change may have significant environmental impacts, as refugees disturb the natural environments of host countries through migration settling patterns.…”

“…Resilience, or a measure of a system's ability to survive and persist within a variable or volatile environment, is often lowest in more fragile or conflict-affected contexts (Meadows, 2009;Gaynor, 2020). The threat of climate change will disproportionately affect the systems in developing countries with the least resilience, as it will increase food insecurity, create barriers to accessing resources, place pressure on education and health systems, cause conflict over resource depletion, and more (Mpandeli et al, 2020). With these pressures placed on these systems, conflict is increasing, in turn, creating forced migrants and refugees (Gaynor, 2020).…”

“…Population increase in the region is exacerbating resource deprivation and insecurity due to increased demand. Resource deprivation coupled with conflict and climate change are the main drivers of intra-and inter-migration in the region, and the devastating effects on humans forced to flee (Mpandeli, et al, 2020).…”