Measuring the duration of formative phases for energy technologies

Bento, Nuno; Wilson, Charlie

doi:10.1016/j.eist.2016.04.004

Cited by 84 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 63 publications

(93 reference statements)

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“…(1999) summarize the critical technological transition process: a successful learning curve, which is based on learning-by-doing and economies of scale, allows for declining costs, while a logistic diffusion model exploiting network effects characterizes adoption, allowing technology to become "locked-in." There have been several recent analyses regarding the formative phases of new technologies (Bento and Wilson 2016), prospects for a future energy transition (Sovacool 2016), and resulting policy implications (Fouquet 2015). However, to the best of our knowledge, none of these engaged in assessing the implications of technological transitions on the oil market, proposing a possible future price of oil.…”

Section: Introduction: Energy Transitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040

Cherif¹,

Hasanov²,

Pande³

2017

IMF Working Papers

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Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

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Section: Introduction: Energy Transitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global Consumer Technology PenetrationSource:Bento and Wilson (2016) and OECD/IEA Global Electric Vehicle Outlook (2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040

Cherif¹,

Hasanov²,

Pande³

2017

IMF Working Papers

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“…Source: (Bento & Wilson, 2016) Note: The graph shows rising market shares in the initial markets, from the point when each technology passed a threshold of 0.1% of its eventual maximum installed capacity in that initial (geographic) market. 4…”

Section: Figure 1 Shape and Rate Of Diffusion Of Technologies In Theimentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Myths: On the Need for Dynamic Realism in DICE and other Equilibrium Models of Global Climate Mitigation

Grubb

Wieners

2020

INET Working Paper Series

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We analyze and critique how optimizing Integrated Assessment Models, and specifically the widely-used DICE model, represent abatement costs. Many such models assume temporal independence -abatement costs in one period are not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions of dynamic realism in emitting systems: inertia, induced innovation, and path dependence.We extend the DICE model with a stylized representation of such dynamic factors. By adding a transitional cost component, we characterize the resulting system in terms of its capacity to adapt in path-dependent ways, and the transitional costs of accelerating abatement. We formalize a resulting metric of the pliability of the system, and the characteristic timescales of adjustment.With the resulting DICE-PACE model, we show that in a system with high pliability, the optimal strategy involves much higher initial investment in abatement, sustained at roughly constant levels for some decades, which generates an approximately linear abatement path and emissions declining steadily to zero. This contrasts sharply with the traditional formulation. Characteristic transition timescales of 20-40 years result in an optimum path † Professor of Energy and Climate Change, University College London. m.grubb@ucl.ac.uk ‡ Postdoctoral researcher at which stabilizes global temperatures around a degree below the traditional DICE behavior; with otherwise modest assumptions, a pliable system can generate optimal scenarios within the goals of the Paris Agreement, with far lower long run combined costs of abatement and climate damages.We conclude that representing dynamic realism in such models is as important as -and far more empirically tractable than -continued debate about the monetization of climate damages and 'social cost of carbon'.https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp106 JEL Codes: Q5, H23, Q54, Q55The aim of the DICE model, and many others following its general philosophy, is to calculate a longterm balance of costs and benefits. Figure 1 shows the results obtained from the most recent version of DICE (2016). With Nordhaus' standard default published assumptions, it produces an emissions path which (after a drop to a present 'optimal level') has modest initial emissions abatement, strengthening over time due to rising climate damages and assumed falling cost of emission abatement. Abatement tends to be deferred, global emissions in 2050 rise back to about present levels before declining at an accelerating rate towards zero early in the next century. The underlying assumptions mean that 'climate damages' -represented as impact on global GDP -remain below 4% of GDP to the end of the century (then doubling by about 2150). Global GDP is assumed to increase seven-fold over the century and climate in the standard DICE is assumed to be a modest issue, with both the global damages and abatement costs having negligible impact on the assumed continued growth in global GDP.

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“…Prior TIS literature has identified indicators to assess the performance of functions (e.g. Vasseur et al, 2013;Bento & Wilson, 2016) but has not yet adjusted these indicators for sector-TIS analysis. Therefore, we developed a set of indicators to evaluate such implications from overlaps at the function level (see Table 1).…”

Section: Process Of Analysis and Description Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%