Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin L.; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlén, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine C.; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, R.; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, S.H.; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; Nijs, Hans den; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana‐Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen.; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

doi:10.1890/11-1052.1

Cited by 12 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Our study‐specific methods, transition matrices, and population vectors are available through the Ecological Society of America's Ecological Archives (Ellis et al. ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The number of matrices per population varied from 3 to 12 (median = 5) (Ellis et al. ). We calculated stage‐based vital rates (stasis, growth, and regression) directly from observed individual fates with our own code and functions from the popbio package in R (Stubben & Milligan ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vital rates for cryptic stages (e.g., seeds in the seed bank or dormant plants) were estimated with diverse methods, typically relying on data from additional experiments (e.g., buried seed bags [Ellis et al. ]).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Crone

Ellis

Morris

et al. 2013

Conservation Biology

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106

118

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Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

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“…Our study‐specific methods, transition matrices, and population vectors are available through the Ecological Society of America's Ecological Archives (Ellis et al. ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Crone

Ellis

Morris

et al. 2013

Conservation Biology

Self Cite

106

118

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“…For each population, we quantified reproduction as the ratio of new seedlings counted in year t + 1 to the number of flowering plants counted in year t. This commonly used metric for plant reproduction assumes that all new plants come from the previous year's flowering plants, rather than from the seed bank (Ellis et al 2012). For both species, transitions into and out of the seed bank are not well understood.…”

Section: Reproduction and Recruitmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Monitoring and Population Viability Analysis of Two Rare Beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

McCaffery

Reisor²,

Irvine

et al. 2014

Western North American Naturalist

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Continued energy exploration and development presents a persistent threat to plant and wildlife species endemic to the western United States. Energy development has impacted both the quantity and the quality of plant and wildlife habitats (e.g., Copeland et al. ABSTRACT.-Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to energy-producing regions of the western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations and how these dynamics might be affected by present and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham's beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are 2 rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats that are heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development and are slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for 2 populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment by using individually marked plants at the 4 study areas. We then used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (l) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The 2 P. grahamii study plots had small populations, averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The 2 P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or 2 years. Both P. grahamii populations had l near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (l = 0.97), whereas the other was increasing (l = 1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.RESUMEN.-El desarrollo de la energía, en combinación con otros factores de estrés ambiental, supone una persistente amenaza para las especies raras endémicas en las regiones productoras de energía del oeste de los Estados Unidos. Los análisis demográficos de poblaciones monitoreadas pueden proporcionar información clave sobre la dinámica natural de las poblaciones de animales y plantas amenazadas, y como podrían ser afectados por desarrollos futuros y actuales. En la cuenca del Uinta en Utah y Colorado, la campanilla de Graha...

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“…We used Cirsium pitcheri (Pitcher's thistle [Eaton] Torrey and Gray, Asteraceae) as our model species because it exhibits metapopulation dynamics (McEachern ). We used a high‐quality 23‐year demographic dataset with detailed observations of each plant (Ellis et al ) in both native and reintroduced populations at the southern tip of Lake Michigan in Indiana. First we evaluated which model parameters accurately portrayed the local population dynamics, comparing projected population sizes with observed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

Halsey

Bell

McEachern

et al. 2015

Restoration Ecology

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Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15-23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

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Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

Cited by 12 publications

References 1 publication

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Demographic Monitoring and Population Viability Analysis of Two Rare Beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

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