Marriage and cohabitation under uncertainty: the role of narratives of the future during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This paper addresses the impact of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on union formation intentions in Italy. We acknowledge that decisions made in uncertain conditions rely on personal narratives of the future, that is sociallyconstructed contingent plans for achieving a personal imaginary. The data come from an on-line survey experiment carried out during the final week of lockdown in Italy on a sample of 1,846 individuals in a romantic relationship (cohabiting or living apart together). Our findings suggest that narratives of the future have a causal effect on marriage intentions: expectations of a long wait before the return to pre-pandemic conditions negatively influence marriage intentions. On the other hand, cohabitation seems more compatible with the uncertainties of today's world. The present study gives a prominent role to the future in family formation practices, net of more 'traditional' factors that have been considered in the literature on family life courses.

The impact of the coronavirus crisis on European societies. What have we learnt and where do we go from here? – Introduction to the COVID volume

“…Respondents were randomly assigned to one of five treatments, each suggesting a different expected duration of the pandemic emergency, presented in a mock news bulletin. The findings confirmed the assumptions that the prolonged vision of the state of emergency would have a negative impact on marriage intentions while cohabitationin contrast to marriagewould be more compatible with an uncertain world (Guetto et al 2020).…”

Attitudinal and behavioural indices of the second demographic transition: Evidence from the last three decades in Europe

“…The fact that the importance of leisure tends to rise particularly fast in post-socialist countries, whose GDP per capita grew spectacularly between the beginning and the end of the analysed period (World Bank 2021), exemplifies the key assumption of the SDT: the cultural shift from materialist to postmaterialist values occurs only after reaching a sufficiently high level of economic development. Recently, following fundamental changes in the labour market, economic recession(s), and spreading economic uncertainty, the way economic factors affect family behaviour is increasingly being studied by family researchers, both theoretically (e.g., Mills and Blossfeld 2013) and empirically (e.g., Bastianelli and Vignoli 2021;Guetto, Vignoli, and Bazzani 2021;Kreyenfeld, Andersson, and Pailhé 2012;Matysiak, Sobotka, and Vignoli 2020). Our analysis focuses on validating the temporal and internal consistency of the existing SDT indices and does not examine their connection with any economic factors.…”

Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first-birth decline in Finland since 2010?

“…Second, the declining fertility rates in unions explained the lion's share of the decline in first births. Thus, uncertainty may not represent an obstacle to forming a cohabiting union as it is for more permanent and irreversible life decision like childbearing or marriage (Guetto, Vignoli, and Bazzani 2020). The sharper decline among those with fewer socioeconomic resources, however, suggests that uncertainty is more likely experienced among those facing actual economic constraints.…”

“…Some hypothesise that uncertainty in people's lives has increased due to increased globalisation and new information channels ). In the narrative framework, expectations and imaginings about the future that extend beyond actual economic and labour market indicators or current conditions may importantly influence fertility decision-making ) and marriage intensions, while hardly any evidence exists to support the expectation that cohabitation formation is impacted by such uncertainties (Guetto, Vignoli, and Bazzani 2020). Unlike marriage and, particularly, unlike having a child, cohabitation is more easily reversible.…”

“…For example, a decline in first births primarily attributed to changes in fertility within unions would support the uncertainty theory, whereby couples use past experiences and shared narratives (from peers, social media, or others) according to or despite actual circumstances to make fertility decisions ). Yet, uncertainty may not explain cohabitation patterns (Guetto, Vignoli, and Bazzani 2020). Alternatively, changes in unions and changes in fertility within unions would both agree with the second demographic transition (SDT) theory, which predicts 'less family' due to self-actualisation values.…”