2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2015.11.052
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Markov chain modelling for time evolution of internal pitting corrosion distribution of oil and gas pipelines

Abstract: A continuous time non-homogenous linear growth pure birth Markov model was used to predict the future pit depth distribution of internally corroded oil and gas pipelines. A negative binomial distribution was used for calculating the transition probability functions of the pit depths whilst pit depths growth was estimated for low, moderate, high and severe pitting corrosion rates using field measured data of pit depths, temperatures, CO2 partial pressures, pH and flow rates. The Markov predicted results agreed … Show more

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Cited by 54 publications
(28 citation statements)
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“…In a recent study, a corrosion model was applied to propose simplified corrosion models [25]. Four (4) different corrosion years of aged gas pipeline were adopted in the previous study, i.e., 8,12,19, and 29 years which were obtained from the pigging test. It is well known that the pigging test requires high cost and time.…”
Section: Proposed Corrosion Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In a recent study, a corrosion model was applied to propose simplified corrosion models [25]. Four (4) different corrosion years of aged gas pipeline were adopted in the previous study, i.e., 8,12,19, and 29 years which were obtained from the pigging test. It is well known that the pigging test requires high cost and time.…”
Section: Proposed Corrosion Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…On the other hand, when the corrosion defect pit depth growth is between 0.21 mm/year to 0.38 mm/year, it is said to be undergoing a high corrosion rate, while a growth rate that is above 0.38 mm/year is classified as severe corrosion [21]. If the corrosion defect depth d(t) at time t of a corroded pipeline follows a power model [16][17][18] according to Equation [13], the time of initiation of the corrosion defects (t ini ) for different corrosion categories are low corrosion (t ini = 1.56 years), mild corrosion (t ini = 0.58 years), high corrosion (t ini = 1.03 years) and severe corrosion (t ini = 1.89 years) [22]. In this case, the burst pressure at different lifecycle durations and various corrosion categories can be computed with Equations (12a,b).…”
Section: Variability Of the Retained Strength Of The Corroded Pipelinesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The common local corrosion is pitting corrosion(holes) [1][2][3][4]. Pitting corrosion reduces the thickness of the casing wall, and causes stress concentration which seriously reduces the strength of casing, bring serious potential danger to the production of oil and gas [5][6][7][8]. Therefore the analysis and study the influence of pitting corrosion defect on casing strength has a great significance on selecting materials and extending the service life of the gas well.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%