Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists

Dinwoodie, J. M.; Tuck, Sarah; Rigot-Müller, Patrick

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.068

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…Numerous other applications include logistics service provision (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010), the carbon footprint of road transport (Piecyk and McKinnon, 2010) and supply chain risk management (Markmann et al, 2013). Interestingly, small panel sizes in the maritime sector, numbering 8 (Ariel, 1989), 13 (Islam et al, 2006) and 35 in recent work similar to this study (Dinwoodie et al, 2013) may reflect fewer specialist organizations than in related logistics and supply chain contexts.…”

Section: The Research Challengementioning

confidence: 70%

“…Delphi techniques assist researchers to capture wide-ranging interrelated variables and multidimensional features of complex problems (Gupta and Clarke, 1996) in a questionnaire tailored to the immediate study objectives which can accommodate asynchronous responses and geographically dispersed participants (Lynch et al, 1994). Delphi methods have been extensively applied in business and transportation incorporating elements of qualitative and quantitative research (Islam et al, 2006;Ariel, 1989;Dinwoodie et al, 2013). Aside from forecasting (Linstone and Turoff, 1975) applications suit gathering data which is not accurately known or available, exploring planning options, assessing potential policy options and developing causal relationships in complex economic or social phenomena including organizational effectiveness (Cetin and Cerit, 2010) and multimodal integration (Makukha and Grey, 2004).…”

Section: The Research Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

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Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists

Dinwoodie

Landamore

Rigot-Müller

2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper aims to synthesize the perceptions of early career specialists regarding trends in dry bulk shipping flows to 2050, the ship type which generates the second highest total volume of carbon emissions. Specialists' insights have implications for formulating polices to manage global trade and shipping emissions. Established Delphi survey techniques achieved consensus in a novel long-term industrial context amongst international panelists with long-term industrial commitment, highlighting trends in drivers including Arctic ice melt, canal upgrades, piracy and mode splits. Globally, expected doubling of raw materials shipments to Western economies and quadrupling elsewhere will be partially offset by specialists' perceptions of shorter hauls. Moderate annual expected tonnage growth globally compares with rapid annual growth in coal shipments, although more localized and multi-sourcing will shorten global coal hauls. After 2030, ocean routing is expected to slightly shorten global hauls. Climate change brings both Arctic ice melt with shorter expected average hauls from Northeast Asia to Western Europe and longer hauls elsewhere as more droughts and failed states force ship rerouting to avoid piracy. Canal upgrades will offer shorter average hauls. Within the UK rising expected demand for biofuels and intolerance of fossil fuels will reduce shipping demand, inviting investigation of a systems approach to planning.

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Section: The Research Challengementioning

confidence: 70%

Section: The Research Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists

Dinwoodie

Landamore

Rigot-Müller

2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Dinwoodie et al [26] attempt to synthesize maritime experts' perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050 through a classic Delphi study. The debate covers the global maritime oil flows; and factors related to future, including economic growth, changes in the shipping market and haul lengths.…”

Section: Maritime Chartering Problemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimum Composition of Charter Contracts for the Renewal of the Fleet of Offshore Support Vessels Considering Uncertainties: A Literature Review

Souza¹,

Vaccaro²,

Rocha³

et al. 2019

IJHT

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This article reviews the literature on the Mendeley, Science Direct and Scopus databases on solutions to the optimal composition problem of offshore support charter contracts published between 2008 and 2018. This problem is relevant to the ongoing fleet renewal process, in terms of associated costs and fleet flexibility, in the context of oil and gas exploration and production. The problem is subject to uncertainties related to the demand to be met and to charter prices. The literature presents solutions that can be applied to parts of the problem, however a satisfactory integral solution was not found. The analysis of the literature and the characteristics of the problem indicate the construction of a solution multi-approach method as a viable way to treat the complexity of the problem.

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“…In terms of flow and spatial structure, various researches have described the hub-and-spoke structure in the Atlantic container shipping system (Ducruet et al, 2010), maritime cluster organization (Viederyte, 2013), coastal maritime clusters (Doloreux et al, 2016), regional maritime connectivity (Mohamed-Chérif and Ducruet, 2016), multilayer dynamics of complex spatial networks in global maritime flows (Ducruet, 2017), transshipment hub flows and gateway flows (Ducruet and Notteboom, 2012), maritime oil freight flows (Dinwoodie et al, 2013), seasonal characteristics of maritime traffic (Campana et al, 2017), and collaborative maritime transportation (Silva, 2013). These studies provide context for the structure and flow characteristics of maritime networks.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maritime network dynamics before and after international events

Fang

et al. 2018

J. Geogr. Sci.

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Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime network dynamics is an initial and critical step in this investigation. This study proposes an automatic identification system (AIS)-based approach to understanding maritime network dynamics before and after international events. In this approach, a spatiotemporal modeling method is introduced to measure the similarity in shipping trends before and after international events. Then, a spatiotemporal analytic framework is proposed to understand the maritime network dynamics by grouping similar situation, and assessing possible indirect effects within a network. Finally, three case studies of international events, military conflict, lifted economic sanctions, and government elections, were used to investigate the observed network dynamics possibly affected by international events. The results indicate that container, tanker, and bulk shipping between India and its connected countries all declined more than 69% after military conflicts between India and Pakistan in August 2015. Tanker shipping between Iran and the United Arab Emirates increased 51% after economic sanctions on Iran were lifted. Container shipping between Sri Lanka and Singapore, Malaysia, and India increased more than 74% after the general election in Sri Lanka. These investigations demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach in assessing the possible effects of international events on maritime network dynamics.

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Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists

Cited by 22 publications

References 33 publications

Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists

Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early career specialists

Optimum Composition of Charter Contracts for the Renewal of the Fleet of Offshore Support Vessels Considering Uncertainties: A Literature Review

Maritime network dynamics before and after international events

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