Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

Abstract

Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell sharply in Brazil, but this transition was unevenly distributed in space and time. Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods and microdata from five censuses, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility transitions in more than 500 small regions of Brazil over this 40-year period. Doing so enables us to map the main features of the Brazilian fertility transition in considerable detail. We detect early declines in some regions of the country and document large differences between early and late transitions in regard to both the initial level of fertility and the speed of the transition. We also use our results to test hypotheses regarding changes in the level of development at the onset of the fertility transition and identify a temporary stall in the Brazilian transition that occurred in the late 1990s. A web site with project details is at http://schmert.net/BayesLogistic . Copyright (c) 2010 The Population Council, Inc..

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

“…In both countries this represents a fall of over four births per woman since the onset of the fertility transition in the 1960s. Fertility decline in Brazil has accelerated in the 2000s (Rodriguez Wong 2009, Potter et al 2010, concurrent with rapid economic growth and broadening of the middle class (Souza 2012). Brazilian fertility is clearly heading to levels substantially lower than replacement, especially if Brazil experiences an intensive postponement of childbearing similar to that experienced in European and East Asian countries in recent decades.…”

Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico

“…The second exercise looks on how the concentration of skilled workers correlates with returns to schooling (individual earnings) across regions of Brazil and Mexico. These two countries have very similar features and are passing through a rapid process of demographic and educational changes with large regional and social inequalities (Barro and Lee 2001;Marteleto 2005, 2008;Marcílio 2001Marcílio , 2005Potter et al 2010;Potter et al 2002;Riani 2005;Gong and Van Soest 2002;Lustig et al 2013;Rios-Neto and Guimarães 2010). Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and economic variations within each country and their regions over time.…”

Envelhecimento populacional, gratuidades no transporte público e seus efeitos sobre as tarifas na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo

“…Apesar de a RM de São Paulo ser umas das aglomerações urbanas mais ricas do país e uma das regiões onde mais cedo se observou o declínio de suas taxas de fecundidade (POTTER et al, 2010), o ritmo de envelhecimento projetado para a RMSP nas próximas duas décadas se assemelha muito à projeção estimada para o total do Brasil. É razoável esperar que a alteração na composição etária da população como um todo deverá ter desdobramentos na composição etária das viagens realizadas dentro do sistema de transporte público.…”

“…A replicação deste estudo para outras aglomerações urbanas no Brasil também parece promissora, uma vez que as tarifas de transporte público deverão ser impactadas com diferentes intensidades, a depender das legislações específicas de cada município e dos seus diferentes ritmos de envelhecimento populacional observados ao longo no território nacional (POTTER et al, 2010). Mas não se pode deixar de levar em conta que o objetivo da gratuidade é o de aumentar a integração social do idoso, evitando, assim, o seu isolamento e os males dele advindo, como a depressão.…”