Objective
Nearly 70% of emergency departments (ED) visits for atrial fibrillation (AF) result in hospitalization. The incidence of serious 30-day adverse events following an ED evaluation for AF remains low. This study’s goal was to prospectively validate our previously reported Risk Estimator Decision aid for AF (RED-AF) model for estimating a patient’s risk of experiencing a 30-day adverse event.
Methods
This was a prospective cohort study, which enrolled a convenience sample of ED patients presenting with AF. RED-AF, previously derived from a retrospective cohort of 832 patients, assigns points based on age, sex, coexisting disease (heart failure, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), smoking, home medications (beta blocker, diuretic), physical examination findings (dyspnea, palpitations, peripheral edema), and adequacy of ED ventricular rate control. Primary outcome was occurrence of ≥1 AF-related adverse outcome (ED visits, rehospitalization, cardiovascular complications, death) within 30 days. We identified a clinically relevant threshold and measured RED-AF’s performance in this prospective cohort, assessing its calibration, discrimination, and diagnostic accuracy.
Results
The study enrolled 497 patients between June 2010 and February 2013. Of these, 120 (24%) had ≥1 adverse event within 30 days. A RED-AF score of 87 was identified as an optimal threshold, resulting in sensitivity (95% CI) and specificity (95%CI) of 96% (91–98) and 19% (15–23), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 27% (23–32) and 93% (85–97), respectively. The c-statistic for RED-AF was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.71).
Conclusion
In this separate validation cohort, RED-AF performed moderately well and similar to the original derivation cohort for identifying the risk of short-term AF-related adverse events in ED patients diagnosed with AF.