Management of a German cockroach population with a juvenoid bait formulation: computer simulation

Abstract

A computer model was applied to simulate responses of German cockroach populations to feeding on juvenoid baits during an equilibrium, exponential, and the earliest phase of population growth. The simulations show that the renewal potential of the cockroach populations will be exhausted when about 80% or more adults become sterile. The attainment of this activity threshold will be preceded by a lag time with no apparent control effect. The time delay appears substantially shorter for both growing populations (30–60 days) than for the equilibrious one (90–120 days), but, the former ones will continue growing throughout this lag. The simulations predict that even a worse baits' performance can give sufficient control effect in the field if the baits are laid in an early phase of population growth. Thus, optimum tactics should integrate administration of juvenoid baits with an introductory reduction of cockroach population.