Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?

Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido; Straub, Ludwig; Werning, Iván

doi:10.3386/w26918

Cited by 420 publications

(170 citation statements)

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“…Footnotes 1. The literature is growing rapidly; see, for example, McKibbin and Fernando (2020), Atkeson (2020), Barro, Ursúa, and Wang (2020), Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt (2020), Guerrieri et al (2020), and Alvarez, Argente, and Lippi (2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consumers and COVID-19: A Real-Time Survey

et al. 2020

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We summarize the results from an ongoing survey that asks consumers questions related to the recent coronavirus outbreak, including their expectations for how the economy is likely to be affected by the outbreak and how their own behavior has changed in response to it. The survey began in early March, providing a window into how consumers’ responses have evolved in real time since the early days of the acknowledged spread of COVID-19 in the United States. In updating and charting the survey’s findings on the Cleveland Fed’s website going forward, we seek to inform policymakers and researchers about consumers’ beliefs during a time of high uncertainty and unprecedented policy responses.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consumers and COVID-19: A Real-Time Survey

et al. 2020

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“…Thus, the inter-temporal economic cost at time is proportional to (1 − ), or (up to an additive constant) − . Nevertheless, several other metrics have been used on the literature in order to account for the economic cost induced by the lockdown situation: Guerrieri et al (2020) or Eichenbaum et al (2020) considered a linear function, while Piguillem and Shi (2020), Bernstein et al (2020) or Djidjou-Demasse et al…”

Section: Economic and Social Costmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

Charpentier

Élie

Laurière

et al. 2020

Preprint

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We consider here an extended model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities of various quantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.

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“…It caused a shock as the impacts of the pandemic on global social and economic aspects in a country were judged faster and more severe than the global financial crisis and The Great Depression (Abodunrin and Oloye, 2020). It is certainly not surprising, considering the lockdown policy adopted by several infected countries that have made all educational institutions, commercial, sports, and religious institutions closed temporarily hence, it undoubtedly has a sustained effect on the cessation of the economic sector (Guerrieri et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Impact Of Pandemic Diseases On Economy and Social Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia

Prawoto¹,

Purnomo²,

Zahra³

2020

IJEBA

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Purpose: The purpose of this article is to examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on social and economic mobility occurring in Indonesia. The research illustrates that the effects of the pandemic are strongly felt in mobility in the socioeconomic sectors. Design/Methodology/Approach: To give answer to the research question whether COVID-19 pandemic has impact on socioeconomic mobility in Indonesia, firstly, we review the literature to find out what different scholars have found in recent researches concerning this subject as well as the current issue and the methods and models used in collecting, processing, and analyzing data. The processing of the data of the above-mentioned reports has been done by SPSS software program, specifically using regression. Findings: The possible impacts caused a decrease in socioeconomic activities and reduced community income. The results of the correlation analysis showed that there was a strong relationship between a pandemic tested positive for COVID-19 and mortality rates with socioeconomic conditions with an average correlation coefficient above 0.80. Practical Implications: This paper will provide a detail analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on socioeconomic mobility, with this impact, government policies relating to human life, economic policies to increase state expenditure (government expenditure), and tax incentives must be made. Furthermore, monetary policy that can accelerate the increase in production by reducing the cost of production through the cost of capital and reduce energy prices becomes an essential choice. Originality/Value: This research paper highlights an empirical analysis based on real data of socio economy mobility in Indonesia.

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Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?

Cited by 420 publications

References 0 publications

Consumers and COVID-19: A Real-Time Survey

Consumers and COVID-19: A Real-Time Survey

COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia

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