Low Heat Availability Could Limit the Potential Spread of the Emerald Ash Borer to Northern Europe (Prognosis Based on Growing Degree Days per Year)

Abstract

Emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is one of 20 priority quarantine pests of the European Union. It is native to Asia and is established in the USA, Canada, European Russia, and Ukraine. We made the first prognosis of the potential range of A. planipennis in Europe based on heat availability. Mean annual growing degree days base 10 °C (AGDD10) was calculated for each grid square (0.25° × 0.25° latitude x longitude degrees) on the Earth’s surface. Minimal AGDD10 recorded in the grid squares currently occupied by A. planipennis was 714° in Asia, 705° in North America, and 711° in European Russia. Agrilus planipennis has never been recorded in localities with AGDD10 below 700°. If the phenotypic plasticity would not allow this species to overcome this threshold, cold regions of Europe would probably not be invaded by A. planipennis. Thus, Fraxinus excelsior could potentially escape from A. planipennis in some regions of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Great Britain.

Accurate age-grading of field-aged mosquitoes reared under ambient conditions using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy and artificial neural networks

“…The discrepancy between lab and field spectra may be due to from the physiological difference between the lab and field mosquitoes, which may have been influenced by different environmental factors during rearing (e.g., temperature and food) (Chown and Nicolson 2004). Degree day measurements are a way of standardizing aging of insects and other organisms under different environmental conditions (Gerade et al 2004, Orlova-Bienkowskaja and Bieńkowski 2022). is a chart of the chronological day age and corresponding degree day ages for our experiment.…”

Forest Site and Stand Structure Affecting the Distribution of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), in Eastern Ukraine

“…The survival success of a non-indigenous species in establishing itself in a new region is contingent upon favorable climatic conditions [49,50], a sufficient number of host trees [51], and a minimum in competitors or entomophagous [52,53]. Therefore, various approaches to predicting the EAB spread have considered climatic conditions favorable for pest survival and propagation [33,49,54,55], the spread of a host plant [12,56], landscape and stand characteristics [57], the possibility of active adult migration along the roads and the passive spread of larvae with wood chips [32], other trunk fragments with bark, and various combinations [6].…”

An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer

“…Insufficient degree-day accumulation for egg hatch to occur in parts of southern Canada and northern Europe during 2021, which had record-breaking summer temperatures, suggests that EAB is incapable of completing its life cycle in these areas. Similarly, models based on annual growing degree-days for Europe predicted that EAB could not complete development in many areas of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, and Great Britain ( 7 , 46 ). Overlaying DDRP predictions of egg hatch produced for multiple years may provide greater insight into spatiotemporal variability in establishment risk based on life cycle completion.…”